The Philadelphia 76ers (3-3) and Boston Celtics (3-3) will square off in Game 7 of their first-round NBA playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Celtics are 7.5-point favorites over the Sixers on the spread (Celtics -7.5), with the over/under set at 205.5 total points. Boston is a -265 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Philadelphia is +215 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my 76ers vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks for Game 7 on Saturday, May 2.
76ers vs Celtics Prediction
- 76ers vs Celtics pick: Celtics -7.5 (-118)
My 76ers vs. Celtics Game 7 best bet is on Boston to cover the spread (-7.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
76ers vs Celtics Odds for Game 7
| 76ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -102 | 205.5 -110o / -110u | +215 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -118 | 205.5 -110o / -110u | -265 |
76ers vs Celtics NBA Playoffs Game 7 Preview
Philadelphia 76ers Betting Preview, Analysis
If we look at Game 6, the Sixers shot 33% from three and 44% from the field on fewer attempts.
The Celtics' defense actually "did the thing." They limited Philly’s quality, but the Sixers got some outlier shooting from Paul George, while Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe went a combined 2-of-11 from deep. Meanwhile, the Celtics shot a miserable 12-of-41 from three-point range.
I don’t love the fact that Boston has reverted to spamming three-pointers again—it’s a sign that Jayson Tatum is back to ISO-heavy basketball and they’ve stopped running their actual sets—but in a home Game 7, that variance typically swings back.
Boston Celtics Betting Preview, Analysis
Look, I get it. I get it. The Celtics are annoying. I understand the frustration; I’ve watched them drop games they had no business losing, and I understand the hesitation to lay a number this big in a Game 7.
But, the trends are screaming at us that Boston is going to win this game, and historically, when home favorites win a Game 7, they don't just squeak by—they crush the opposing team.
Let’s talk about the "Matt Mitchell Rule." It is the gold standard for Game 7s. Historically, home favorites who win Game 7 outright are 40-10 against the spread. That is an 80% cover rate.
The logic is simple: in a winner-take-all environment, the pressure eventually breaks the road team, and the margin tends to widen down the stretch. The average margin of victory in these spots is 7.9 points, but we see double-digit blowouts far more often than nail-biters.
If you think the Celtics win this game—and I do—you should take them to cover the spread, too. It’s that simple.
76ers vs Celtics Pick, Betting Analysis
Celtics -7.5
The Celtics rely on variance by design. They want to shoot more threes than you and trust the math over 48 minutes.
It’s harder to play out that variance in a tiny sample size, which is why they have these occasional collapses, but when it clicks, you get the 2023 version of this matchup where they beat Philly by 24.
Tatum has been in four Game 7s where the Celtics held a double-digit lead; they are 3-1 straight up and ATS in those games, covering the closing spread by an average of 10.5 points.
I highly doubt the Celtics lose this game, and if they win, there's a very good chance they cover the spread.
Jaylen Brown Under 31.5 Points & Rebounds
I understand the volume concern here—it’s a Game 7, so the stars are going to play as many minutes as they possibly can—but Jaylen Brown has been trending downward significantly as the Sixers have adjusted their defensive looks.
Brown has gone under this 31.5 mark in three straight games, putting up combined totals of 27, 27, and 19. The return of a healthier Embiid has fundamentally shifted the geometry of the court.
When Jaylen runs with the second unit, the Sixers have been throwing Adem Bona out there and switching everything, which has completely disrupted Brown’s rhythm. He’s used to attacking drop-coverage, but with Tatum dominating the ball and Philly switching screens, those lanes are disappearing.
His rebounding numbers are down, too. Philly is doing a much better job crashing the glass as a unit, leaving fewer long rebounds for Brown to snatch up.
This also ties into my spread play: if Boston gets out to a massive lead, they won’t need Brown to log 44 minutes. He might finish with a 22-point, 5-rebound night in 34 minutes of action, which cashes this bet comfortably.
Sam Hauser Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
Sam Hauser struggled miserably in Game 6—going 1-of-5 like the rest of his teammates—but the volume is the key.
The Celtics trust Hauser. They need his gravity to space the floor when Tatum is operating in the ISO, and they aren't going to move away from him just because of one bad shooting night.
Before his Game 6 outlier, Hauser hit at least two threes in every single game of this series, including four in the opener.
At -170, you’re paying a bit of juice, but it’s worth it for the floor. He still got five looks in a game where nobody could hit anything.
If the Celtics’ shot variance comes back around at home, Hauser is going to get plenty of good looks as the Sixers scramble to cover Boston's more prominent scoring threats.
The Sixers will live with Hauser threes, and I expect him to knock down at least two.
Matt Moore's 76ers vs Celtics Best Bets
- Celtics -7.5 (-118)
- Jaylen Brown Under 31.5 Points & Rebounds (-106)
- Sam Hauser Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-170)
