Raptors vs. Magic Game 2 Betting Preview: Bet on Toronto to Bounce Back?
Photo credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Lowry
Game 2 Betting Odds: Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic
- Spread: Raptors -10
- Over/Under: 211.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: TNT
- Series Score: Magic Lead 1-0
>> All odds as of 11:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.
Despite a new coach plus several additions to the roster, the same old playoff Raptors showed up in Game 1, losing outright to the Magic. Will they bounce back in Game 2? Our analysts discuss.
Betting Trends to Know
The Raptors dropped Game 1 of their playoff series against the Magic as a 9.5-point favorite, continuing their trend of underperforming early in playoff series — especially in Game 1s. The Raptors are now 3-13 against-the-spread (ATS) overall and 1-8 ATS at home in franchise history in Game 1s.
Have the Raptors historically been able to rebound in Game 2? In the Kyle Lowry era (since 2012-13), Toronto is 2-6-1 ATS in Game 2s, failing to cover the spread by 6.6 points per game. – Evan Abrams
The Magic won Game 1 as a 9.5-point underdog and were about a 4-1 underdog on the moneyline. This season, the Magic are by far the most profitable team on the moneyline, profiting bettors $1,921 by wagering $100 per game. Since the NBA All-Star break, the Magic are 16-8 straight-up, profiting bettors $966, including 7-2 straight-up against teams above .500 (+$1,092). – Abrams
Game 1 of Raptors-Magic went under the closing total of 212.5. Since 2005, if a team’s previous game went under, the under in its next playoff game has gone 314-276-7 (53.2%). This strategy has been most profitable in the first round: 183-139-3 (56.8%). – John Ewing
Moore: How I’m Betting Tonight’s Game
This is the one game of the upsets I don’t think is sustainable. The Magic made almost three more 3-pointers than they averaged per 100 possessions in the regular season and shot 13 percentage points better. They shot 48% from 3-point range! The Magic!
That’s just not a number I can believe in with their personnel. Some of the Raptors’ concerns were also very much in transition defense. Orlando averaged 10.8 fastbreak points per 100 possessions during the regular season and had 14 in Game 1.
Even when it wasn’t fastbreak situations, the Raptors just weren’t ready to engage. The Raptors have all five back here, and they’re just not ready for the Magic to jump on them the way D.J. Augustin did:
That’s as simple as “get back on defense,” which is correctable. That, plus the likely Magic shooting regression, plus the likelihood of the Magic conceding because they already now have home court, plus the fact that 2-seeds are 9-6-1 ATS after losing Game 1 in the first round since 2003, has me on Toronto.
I expected them to bumble Game 1. They’re the Raptors. It’s what they do. But Orlando got everything to go their way, including Kyle Lowry going scoreless, and they still needed a D.J. Augustin game-winner. I’m on the Raps. – Matt Moore
Locky: Fade Game 2, Bet the Series Instead
I agree with a lot of what Matt said and would just further emphasize that D.J. Augustin outscored Kyle Lowry 25-0, the Magic were better from 3 compared to their average and they were +8 from the line compared to Toronto. They got every conceivable statistical advantage, in a game in which they shouldn’t have had this many of them, and they STILL almost lost. That’s how I’m looking at it.
When the Magic play their “average” game, it shouldn’t be enough to hang, especially with Toronto having one of the better home courts in the league (minus Game 1s, I guess? One of the great weird trends of this decade).
The problem is the spread is correct in assuming there is a large gap, similar to the one that existed in the odd Game 1 (in fact a half-point higher, closer to where I had Game 1 before betting Toronto). This number in Game 2 is close to what I have, and I am passing.
I will say, though, that the series price floated to down around the high -300s to low -400s on Toronto, and I think that’s a phenomenal price. This, as Matt said, was much more of an aberration than the other Game 1 losses by home teams. There’s nothing to be afraid of yet, and getting a mark-down from -1250 for this big of a statistical mismatch is something I absolutely AM betting. — Ken Barkley
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.