The San Antonio Spurs (2-1) and Minnesota Timberwolves (1-2) will meet in Game 4 of their second-round NBA playoff series this evening. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Spurs are 4.5-point favorites over the Wolves on the spread (Spurs -4.5), with the over/under set at 218.5 total points. San Antonio is a -188 moneyline favorite to win and take a 3-1 series lead, while Minnesota is +158 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Spurs vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks for Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals on Sunday, May 10.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Prediction
- Spurs vs Timberwolves pick: Timberwolves +4.5 (-110) / Moneyline (+158)
My Spurs vs. Timberwolves Game 4 best bet is split between Minnesota to cover the spread and win outright on the moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Odds for Game 4
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 218.5 -108o / -112u | -188 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 218.5 -108o / -112u | +158 |
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Spurs vs Timberwolves NBA Playoffs Game 4 Preview
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview, Analysis
As dominant as Victor Wembanyama was in Game 3, it’s worth noting that it took a performance of that magnitude—combined with another wretched shooting night from the Wolves—for San Antonio to escape with the win and cover.
The Spurs have proven to be a formidable matchup, and their offense has remained remarkably consistent throughout the series.
While I liked Minnesota’s chances heading into the postseason, the reality is that the Spurs are likely too good to let this slip now.
By securing Game 3, they’ve made it incredibly difficult for the Wolves to make it out of this series alive, with Minnesota needing to win three out of the next four games.
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview, Analysis
The Wolves are currently mired in some ugly shooting luck, hitting just 32% from three and a dismal 35% on mid-range shots.
I don’t care how scary Wembanyama is as a rim protector; those are outlier figures that are due for a statistical correction.
Despite the shooting woes, this Timberwolves team has enough "dawg" in them to keep fighting.
Anthony Edwards looked revived enough in Game 3 to convince me he has another push in him, even if his physical burst is starting to fade.
I have a hard time believing this Minnesota group will simply fold and get reverse-swept without a serious stand.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Pick, Betting Analysis
Timberwolves +4.5 (-110) / Timberwolves Moneyline (+158)
The trends here are admittedly mixed. Since 2003, home underdogs down 2-1 after losing back-to-back games are just 11–12 (47.8%) ATS. However, if you prefer the early urgency, teams in this spot are 8–6–1 (57%) ATS in the first half.
While the historical data isn’t overwhelmingly in their favor, I believe Minnesota finds a way to even the series before potentially being eliminated in six. I’m backing the Wolves one more time on the spread and the moneyline.
Over 218.5 (-108)
This total has already moved three points from the opening number, as the market is clearly banking on an offensive breakout.
The scripts for an over are straightforward: either the Wolves finally find their shooting touch to supplement a consistent Spurs offense, or San Antonio simply wallops them with high-volume shooting and puts up a big number of their own.
Given the inevitable improvement coming for Minnesota’s 32% mark from deep, the over is the play.
Naz Reid Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-125)
I’m running this back, as the books haven't adjusted the line despite Naz Reid cashing this in three straight games and four of his last five.
The Timberwolves are consistently generating high-quality looks for him, specifically through corner three-point attempts, relocations, and kick-outs following offensive rebounds.
Julian Champagnie Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-162)
This has become one of the most consistent plays of the postseason, as Julian Champagnie has gone over this total in literally every single playoff game so far.
Because of the massive gravity created by Wembanyama and the Spurs' guards, the Timberwolves' defense struggles to keep a body on him, resulting in a steady diet of open looks from beyond the arc.
Rudy Gobert Over 1.5 Assists (-150)
Rudy Gobert has cleared this 1.5-assist mark in seven of his nine playoff games this year. He tends to pick up these assists through short interior passes or quick kick-outs after securing offensive rebounds.
While I expect an uptick in his rebounding performance, I prefer this assist line as a softer and more reliable way to bet on his overall activity around the paint.
Matt Moore's Spurs vs Timberwolves Game 4 Best Bets
- Timberwolves +4.5 (-110) / Timberwolves Moneyline (+158)
- Over 218.5 (-108)
- Naz Reid Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-125)
- Julian Champagnie Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-162)
- Rudy Gobert Over 1.5 Assists (-150)
