Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Bet on Kelly Oubre to Hit the Boards vs. Nuggets?
Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kelly Oubre.
- Sunday's four-game NBA slate features two player prop bets offering strong value.
- This piece will focus on Suns SF Kelly Oubre and Pelicans F Brandon Ingram.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s four games:
- Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets: 8 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Clippers: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Suns SF Kelly Oubre
THE PICK: Over 6.5 rebounds (+119)
This line appears to have value considering the Suns current injury situation. Aron Baynes will miss his fourth straight game, which should result in a huge workload for Oubre. He’s played at least 35.1 minutes in each of his first three contests, and his cracked the 37.4-minute plateau in two of them. Oubre has averaged 7.0 rebounds per 36 minutes this season, so this line seems low given how many minutes he’s been playing.
I’m definitely willing to roll the dice on this prop at better than even money, and I would play it anything better than -115.
Pelicans F Brandon Ingram
THE PICK: Over 6.5 rebounds (-114)
Ingram is coming off just four rebounds in his last game, which makes this a nice opportunity to buy low. He grabbed at least seven rebounds in each of his four prior games, and he should see a boost in rebound value with Derrick Favors and Jahlil Okafor out of the lineup. Ingram has posted a rebound rate 11.4% this season, and that number has increased to 12.2% with Favors and Okafor off the floor.
This is grading out as one of the top props of the day, and I’d play it up to -140.