The Phoenix Suns (42-33) and Orlando Magic (39-35) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from the Kia Center in Orlando, Fla. The game will broadcast live on FDSFL.
The Magic are 2-point favorites over the Suns on the spread (Magic -2), with the over/under set at 224.5 total points. Orlando is a -125 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Phoenix is +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Suns vs. Magic predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, March 31.
Suns vs Magic Prediction, Pick
- Suns vs Magic picks: Suns Moneyline (+110), Over 224.5 (-110)
My Magic vs. Suns best bets are on Phoenix moneyline and the game to go over 224.5 total points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Suns vs Magic Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -115 | 224.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -105 | 224.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
Suns vs Magic NBA Preview
The Orlando Magic are in what may be terminal velocity as their season spirals toward a possible play-in exit. After giving up a historic 31-0 run to the Raptors, there’s a looming sense that things are too far gone and Orlando will be looking at big changes this summer after a disastrous season.
Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns are fighting for their play-in lives as well. They still lead the Clippers by three in the loss column and trail the Rockets by four for the six seed, but they need to continue to stabilize, sitting at 4-6 in their last 10 games.
The Suns are on a back-to-back road set having beaten Memphis on Monday night. The line with Orlando favored is clearly suggesting some form of rest for Phoenix. You should wait until the injury report pops up at 1 p.m. ET.
The Suns are 6-8 SU and ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this season — and they are 2-4 SU but 3-3 ATS in those spots on the road.
Devin Booker, notably, has played in 11 of the 14 back-to-backs — and given how much time he’s missed, it basically suggests he’s not expected to miss time.
The market line for this game is Magic -0.3 with no rest adjustment and an average 2.5 points for homecourt. So, you would think that a 2.5-point adjustment for the back-to-back is adequate. That’s around where most models put the impact of a back-to-back.
However, I disagree with the market line. I think the Suns should be substantial favorites here — by more than five points, at least.
The Magic are 22-14 at home this season, but just 16-20 ATS and 11-17 as home favorites. They are 3-4 ATS as favorites against Western Conference teams, with most of those games coming against lottery squads.
Orlando is 20-26 ATS without Franz Wagner this season. The Suns are 15-10 ATS and have covered the spread in four straight games without Dillon Brooks.
I basically have the Suns power rated as an average team; -0.4 points below average — and I have Orlando rated significantly worse at -3.8 without Wagner and Anthony Black.
Then, given how bad the Magic have been at home against the spread, I wind up with a rating far away from this number.
Maybe this is the game where Orlando turns it around. If I had the Magic projected as favorites here, it would a good buy-low spot — but I think Orlando is fundamentally broken and a team that I will continue to fade.
Suns vs Magic Predictions, Betting Analysis
Suns Moneyline
On the basketball side of the equation, there’s not many edges that you can find for Orlando.
The Magic have more perimeter creators, but not as efficient ones. Orlando is 27th in eFG%, the Suns are 18th. That, alone, is a huge edge.
After being so good for so many seasons, the Magic’s defense has been mediocre this season — and the absence of that identity has really hurt them.
Meanwhile, the Suns know what their identity is: swarming defense that causes turnovers and gets out in transition.
This is also a problematic math-game environment for the Magic.
Phoenix creates a lot of threes, and makes them at a top-10 rate — while the Magic take very few, and make very few.
Orlando is excellent at preventing threes, but this is still a big edge for Phoenix. I’ll take the Suns moneyline.
Over 224.5
The Suns are ranked 23rd in opponent free throw rate, while the Magic draw the second-most free throws with their physical style offensively.
Phoenix will put the Magic at the line, which will create dead-time points and boost the total .
I project this line at 228, slightly over the total. The over is 12-10 when the Suns are road underdogs.
Given that I’m expecting a big three-point performance by the Suns and high free throw volume for the Magic, this should be a good spot to take the over.
Suns vs Magic Best Bets
- Suns Moneyline (+110)
- Over 224.5 (-110)
