Thursday’s NBA PrizePicks Player Props: Fade Rudy Gobert in this Tough Matchup (April 21)

Thursday’s NBA PrizePicks Player Props: Fade Rudy Gobert in this Tough Matchup (April 21) article feature image

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Rudy Gobert #27 of the Utah Jazz.

  • Playing NBA props on Thursday night? Our NBA prop analyst Brandon Anderson breaks down his top PrizePicks parlay.
  • He's fading Rudy Gobert's ability to score on switches and backing Jordan Poole's quietly improving playmaking.
  • Check out his analysis and picks below.

Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.

Enter: PrizePicks.

With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.

You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.

Here’s how I would approach today’s NBA Playoffs slate.

What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.

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NBA PrizePicks Parlay

Rudy Gobert, Under 13.0 Points

It's an understatement to say that Rudy Gobert is really struggling.

Look, this is not about Gobert's defense. Is Rudy struggling on that end? Yeah, sure, he's struggling to magically defend two guys at once who are 22 feet apart, one at the rim and one at the 3-point line, when his teammates allow opponents to attack the rim play after play. It turns out it's pretty hard to play defense 1-on-2 or 1-on-5.

But the offensive end has been a struggle too. Yet again, an opponent is going smaller, and yet again, Gobert is not able to punish that opponent. He just doesn't have the game to get the ball in the post and punish someone smaller. He's an excellent and efficient lob threat and a good roll man, but his skill set simply isn't versatile.

This isn't the regular season anymore. Gobert averaged 15.6 PPG in the regular season and went over 13.0 points in 44 of 66 games, a full two-thirds (67%) of the time. But he's scored only five and eight points in the two playoff games so far, and he took only one field goal attempt in Game 1.

In fact, Gobert has just 23 field goal attempts in five games against Dallas this season, and he's averaging 9.8 PPG. He went over this line once by a single point but has been under in all the rest. This just isn't a good matchup for Gobert, and it's increasingly looking like it isn't a good matchup for Utah.

Jordan Poole, Over 3.5 Assists

Poole has been molten lava his first two playoff games, and he continues to look like a serious championship X factor. His 3-point shooting has been red hot with five 3s in each of his first two playoff games, and he's become a real scoring machine.

But it's not just the shooting and scoring that's improved. Poole has turned himself into a fantastic playmaker too. Over the final 19 regular season games, Poole averaged 5.7 assists per game. He had at least three assists in all but three of those, and he went over 3.5 assists in 14 of the 19 (74%). Poole is passing on the move, and he's seeing and finding the advantages.

Those numbers must be taken with a grain of salt, of course, since Steph Curry was missing for many of the games. But with Curry still a bit limited and possibly coming off the bench again, Poole has still been leading the way. He has 11 assists his first two playoff games, including eight last game.

That new Golden State lineup with Poole, Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green has absolutely devastated the Nuggets this series. Look for the Poole Party to continue in Denver.

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Nick Sterling
Jul 14, 2024 UTC