Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Odds, Pick: Back Golden State’s Trends

Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Odds

The Portland Trail Blazers head to the Bay Area on Friday to take on Jordan Poole and the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors have been a truly elite team on their home floor while struggling dramatically on the road. Will the Blazers be able to crack into this Warriors' home-court advantage, or will the Dubs once again defend their home court?

Let's break it down.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers head into the Bay with a few listed injuries. Jusuf Nurkic (calf) is probable, but they will be without Keon Johnson (illness), Greg Brown (illness), Justise Winslow (ankle), Nassir Little (hip) and Gary Payton II (core).

Despite these injuries, the Blazers have a very strong starting lineup.

On the season, the Blazers have been a middle-of-the-road team. They're 18-16 with the ninth-best Adjusted Offensive Rating (114.7) but the 18th-ranked Adjusted Defensive Rating (113.7).

However, they have been much better when Damian Lillard is available. When Dame has missed, the Blazers are just 5-7 compared to 13-9 when he has been active. This makes sense since Lillard is their leading offensive weapon and had a +13 point differential per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass.

When the Blazers' preferred starting lineup of Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Jerami Grant and Nurkic share the floor, they score 118.4 points per 100 possessions with a +6.8 point differential.

This is one of the top lineups in the league but has had one flaw — it likes to play drop coverage even though it has experimented a bit with more at-the-level coverage and switching. This is not this lineup's forte.

Against a Warriors' lineup that lives on the perimeter and plays with perpetual motion, this is a tough matchup.

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Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have quite literally been a different team at home compared to on the road. They're 15-2 at home compared to 3-16 on the road, and they score 119.3 points per game at home compared to 113.7 on the road.

This holds even without Stephen Curry, as they're 3-0 without him at home and 1-6 on the road. It's really a stunning split. But at this point in the season, we need to account for it.

The Warriors will still be without a few players for this game, as Curry (shoulder) and Andrew Wiggins (illness) remain out. However, Klay Thompson is not on the injury report, and Draymond Green (foot) and Donte DiVincenzo (knee) are both listed as probable.

The Warriors have essentially used Poole as Curry's replacement, and it has worked fairly well. In 10 games without Curry, Poole has averaged 27.5 points, 1.7 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.7 3s made on 9.8 attempts, with 4.8 turnovers per game.

His turnover prop currently sits at over 3.5 (-105) on DraftKings, which is a bet. He has exceeded that line in nine of his 10 games without Curry this season.

The Warriors' numbers when Poole has been on the floor are not great on the season, but they have looked better over their last three home games.

The offense has not been elite, but the defense has held the Grizzlies, Hornets and Jazz — all of whom have relatively strong offenses — to fewer than 105 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.

If the defense gels and remains strong, the Warriors can garner enough offense to compete on a nightly basis.

Trail Blazers-Warriors Pick

The Warriors have been an incredible team at home and remain undefeated at home without Curry, yet they are listed as underdogs tonight against the Blazers.

The Blazers have been solid against the spread on the season but have been a road favorite just five times this season with a 3-2 ATS record and two straight-up losses.

On the flip side, the Warriors have been a home dog just three times this season, and they have won outright in all three games. They are simply a different team at home.

The Warriors have the tools and offensive scheme to keep up with the Blazers and Lillard. If the Blazers elect to drop on them, we could see big performances from Poole, DiVincenzo and Thompson from beyond the arc.

I'll grab the points here and play the Poole turnovers prop.

Pick: Warriors +3 · Jordan Poole Over 3.5 Turnovers

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