Jazz vs Mavericks Odds, Picks, Predictions | NBA Betting Preview (Thursday, March 21)

Here's everything you need to know about Jazz vs. Mavericks on Thursday, Mar. 21 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

After putting up a valiant fight in Oklahoma City on Wednesday night, the Jazz will attempt to turn around less than 24 hours after the final buzzer and come up with a rare road win — this time in Dallas.

Will injuries and tired legs catch Utah on the second night of a back-to-back, or might the oddsmakers be hanging a rather extreme line on the proceedings?

Let's get into how to bet Jazz vs. Mavericks on Thursday and make a Jazz vs. Mavericks prediction.

It's been a rough stretch for the Jazz, who have dealt with a number of injuries over the last few weeks and as a result have dropped six of their last seven games. While we can't even give this team a slight nod for being a great one to bet against the spread in the last month, we can certainly say some nice things about the way they've played.

For starters, despite being without Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson, Utah's offense remains watchable. The Jazz have poured in 116.2 points per 100 possessions in March (11th in the league), and they've managed to do it against a pretty difficult schedule which has included the Heat, Celtics, Nuggets, Thunder and Timberwolves (twice). Unfortunately, despite a slight uptick in 3-point shooting, the main factor here has been the drastic improvement in success from mid-range, which doesn't always equate to efficient offensive output.

And, when you consider that Utah is one of the worst defensive sides in the NBA, that all becomes more troubling. The 3-point line has been a nightmare for the Jazz — yielding a 43.7% hit rate to opponents in March — but the bright side is that their rim defense has improved tenfold and their rebounding ranks sixth during this span.

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Despite being a team that's relied on 3-point shooting to win games for many years, the Mavericks have gone on a little run here in March without the outside shot featuring as much.

Dallas is sixth in offensive efficiency this month in spite of a 33.7% 3-point hit rate, according to Cleaning the Glass, relying instead on steady production at the rim and the mid-range. It's certainly mind-blowing to see all the success given how frequently Dallas opts to shoot the 3, and creates a bit of a headache for a Jazz team which has been dreadful at the perimeter.

The Mavericks still don't care to play much defense when we look at their overall performance, but in a stunning turn, they've taken their greatest weakness and transformed it into their backbone on that end of the floor. Dallas gives up a ton of looks at the rim, but despite ranking in the bottom-three teams within four feet this season (per Cleaning the Glass), it has the fourth-best defense at the rim this month. It continues to get cooked from 3 and has fallen off against the mid-range jumper, but at least it's made some improvements.

Of note here is the fact that the Mavericks have been a stellar team against the spread this season (38-31), but as home favorites they're just 11-12 ATS. On top of that, this is the largest number they've been asked to cover all season by two whole points, though as double-digit favorites they're 3-2 ATS thus far and have won every one of these games straight up.

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Speaking of trends, the Jazz are 4-6 ATS on the second leg of a back-to-back and 11-17-1 ATS as road underdogs. They were able to come up with an inspired performance through three quarters in Oklahoma City before things fell apart and fatigue set in, and in a far worse matchup this time around it's going to be tough to hang with Dallas.

The Mavericks may be performing well at the rim, but they continue to shoot the 3 with great frequency, which should be a real problem for a Jazz team that's allowed better than 43% shooting from outside this month. On top of that, Utah's offense seems to be a bit of fool's gold given its reliance on the inefficient mid-range shot. For a team that also likes to shoot the 3, a recent cold spell in that area should stick the proverbial nail in the coffin.

Pick: Mavericks -14.5 (-105; BetMGM)