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Warriors vs. Grizzlies Odds, Picks, Predictions: Lay the Big Number

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Odds, Picks, Predictions: Lay the Big Number article feature image

A.J. Mast/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Dillon Brooks #24 of the Memphis Grizzlies.

  • The Memphis Grizzlies are a big favorite over the Golden State Warriors on Monday night, with the total dropping from 222.5 to 221 over the last few hours.
  • The Warriors are banged up and on the final game of a five-contest East Coast road trip, so it's not an ideal situational spot.
  • Get Raheem Palmer's favorite bet for Grizzlies vs. Warriors below.

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Odds

Warriors Odds+10.5
Grizzlies Odds-10.5
Time8 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM, updated Monday afternoon. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Memphis Grizzlies host the Golden State Warriors in a battle between two of the top three teams in the Western Conference. While both teams are missing their respective star point guards (Ja Morant and Stephen Curry), it's clear that these are two teams headed in different directions over the past two weeks.

The Grizzlies have won four straight games and eight out of their last nine after their 127-102 win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday night. Meanwhile, the Warriors have been in a total tailspin, losing five out of the last six games including last night's 123-115 loss to the WashingtonWizards.

With the Grizzlies winning two of the first three matchups between these two teams, they'll look to clinch the season series with a win and increase their four-game lead over the Warriors lead for the No. 2 spot in the West.

Will the Grizzlies continue to roll in the absence of Morant or will the Warriors get off the snide with a win? Let's analyze both sides and find out.

Who Suits Up For the Warriors?

This road trip hasn't gone well for the Warriors and have now lost five out of their last six games. Unfortunately, things don't get any easier tonight as they play on zero days rest to take on a rested Grizzlies team for the last game of their five game road trip before heading back to the Bay Area to host Chris Paul, Devin Booker and the Phoenix Suns.

Making matters worse, they’ll be without Curry who's impact goes beyond his impressive season averages: 25.5 points, 6.3 assists and 5.2 rebounds. The Warriors are 11.4 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor and a large part of that is on offense where having the gravity of the game’s best 3-point shooter leads to open shots for everyone else. The Warriors have a 3-7 record without Curry in the lineup and they’re scoring just 111 points per 100 possessions.

According to Anthony Slater, who covers the Warriors for the Athletic, they could be also be without Klay Thomson, Draymond Green and/or Otto Porter Jr. in tonight's game, so it feels like the Steve Kerr could use this game as rest opportunity given the bad spot and the long road trip.

"Most likely" no Klay Thompson, Draymond Green or Otto Porter Jr. tomorrow night in Memphis, per Kerr.

— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) March 28, 2022

Regardless, the Warriors will still be playing even if they're missing their main stars and they rank 29th in Turnover Rate (15.2%), which doesn't bode well against Grizzlies who have the best transition offense in the league.

If there's any hope for this Warriors team, it lies with their defense, which is allowing 112.6 points per 100 possessions over the past two weeks, eighth among NBA teams. However, if this team can't score efficiently, they could be in for a long night against a Grizzlies team that has been downright dominant lately.

Grizzlies Dominate With or Without Ja Morant

The Grizzlies haven't skipped a beat over this recent stretch without Morant. They aren’t just beating teams either, they’re taking teams into the deep waters and drowning them with their average margin of victory of 19.5 points during this span.

The Grizzlies are one of the deepest teams in the league and they remain one of the best teams in the league without him, going 17-2 with a +351 point differential. 

Desmond Bane has stepped in Morant's absence, scoring 24.3 points on 57.8% shooting and 53.3% from behind the arc during this span — he’s also dishing 5.5 assists and grabbing 4.3 rebounds per game. With Dillon Brooks back in the lineup after sitting out with an injury, they now have their third-leading scorer (17.9 point per game) who can also provide elite perimeter defense.

The Grizzlies have historically been a bad matchup for the Warriors over the past few seasons. Aside from the Grizzlies knocking the Warriors out of the Play-in Tournament last season, the Warriors generally struggle with the length and athleticism Memphis has at its disposal.

The Grizzlies should have no problems getting stops to fuel their offense, which ranks first in transition points per 100 possessions (4.4). With the Warriors on the tail end of a five game road trip, I expect the Grizzlies to push the pace and generate easy offense.

Warriors-Grizzlies Pick

This is a tremendous spot for the Grizzlies and a less than ideal spot for the Warriors who play on a back-to-back and the final game of their five game East Coast Road trip.

The Warriors could also be resting key players in Green, Thompson and Porter Jr., which means the Warriors are essentially tanking a game in which they're at a severe rest disadvantage.

I gave out the Grizzlies at -7.5 before the Warriors' Sunday night game against the Wizards and while that number is gone, I think you can safely lay the -10.5 with the Grizzlies and get to the window, however I wouldn't recommend playing a full unit size given the line move.

Pick: Grizzlies -10.5

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Nick Sterling
Feb 24, 2024 UTC