Warriors vs. Spurs Odds & Pick: Bet Golden State to Cover at Alamodome (January 13)

Warriors vs. Spurs Odds

The Golden State Warriors take on the San Antonio Spurs at the Alamodome in game that is expected to break the NBA's single-game attendance. This is a great day for basketball and the Warriors should put on a show.

Here's a look at the odds, as well as my pick and prediction for the Golden State Warriors vs the San Antonio Spurs.

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Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are listed as 8.5-point favorites at the time of this writing and are fairly healthy heading into this matchup. Although they will be without Jonathan Kuminga (foot), James Wiseman (ankle), and JaMychal Green (leg), those are all players that are further down their depth chart.

Stephen Curry returned from injury on Tuesday, played 31 minutes, and scored 24 points, including five 3-pointers against the Phoenix Suns. He was not efficient in his scoring, but it was good to see him back on the floor. (I previewed how is return to the lineup would impact the Warriors in my Player Props Forecast.)

The Warriors have not been their dominant selves this season and have struggled mightily on the road. They rank 23rd in Adjusted Net Rating (-1.6), according to Dunks And Threes and have struggled to get into a real rhythm this season. However, their starting lineups have been excellent this season.

When their starters have been healthy, that lineup is a +21.4 in point differential while scoring an elite 128.8 points per 100 possessions. This lineup of Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Kevin Looney is expected to play tonight and should be able to score at will against the Spurs.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are legitimately bad. They are last in Adjusted Net Rating (-8.0) with the 26th-ranked offense and the worst defense in the NBA. Tonight they will be without Devin Vassell (knee), their most efficient perimeter scoring threat.

One of the major problems for the Spurs is they allow an incredible amount of easy looks at the rim. They struggle to protect the paint and give too many second-chance opportunities with their bottom-10 Rebounding Rate. Although they do a decent job of limiting 3-point opportunities, their opponents are shooting an absurd 40% from beyond the arc, per Cleaning the Glass.

Despite this, the Spurs have been excellent against the spread, and are 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games. They have managed to keep the games close enough even though they are just 3-7 straight up over this same stretch.

Warriors-Spurs Pick

One of the concerns I have with this game is that basketball teams generally do not play in football stadiums. I think this should affect both teams' depth perception to a certain degree and have a lean on the under, which is astronomically high at 244.5.

However, this line at -8.5 is a bit short, especially given the implied total. The Warriors destroyed the Spurs on Nov. 14, with a 132-95 victory and that was at the point in the season where Warriors head coach Steven Kerr was managing his starters' minutes and playing an extended rotation.

This Warriors team is prepared for a record-setting crowd in an unfamiliar arena, and I expect them to make the necessary adjustments to succeed tonight while the Spurs should miss one of their most efficient offensive weapons in Vassell.

Pick: Warriors -8.5 (Play to -9)

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