The Akron Zips play the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first round of the NCAA Tournament from Tampa, Florida. Tip-off is set for 12:40 p.m. ET on truTV.
Texas Tech is favored by -7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -330. Meanwhile, Akron is the underdog at +7.5 with a moneyline of +260. The total is set at 156.5 points.
Here’s my Akron vs. Texas Tech prediction and college basketball picks for March 20, 2026.
Akron vs Texas Tech Prediction
My Pick: Akron +7.5 | Akron 1H +4.5
My Akron vs Texas Tech best bet is on the Zips to cover at half and the entire game. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Akron vs Texas Tech Odds
| Akron Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
- Akron vs Texas Tech spread: Texas Tech -7.5
- Akron vs Texas Tech over/under: 156.5 points
- Akron vs Texas Tech moneyline: Akron +260, Texas Tech -330
Akron vs Texas Tech College Basketball Betting Preview
Akron Basketball
Miami (OH) was the story of the MAC this season, running the table at 31-0 in the regular season. Those who kept a close eye on the conference know that Akron was as good, if not better than the RedHawks. The teams met once, on January 3, on Miami's home floor. The Zips shot 25% from long range and lost by just three points.
That was Akron's first, last and only loss in conference, including the three wins needed to secure the auto-bid at the conference tournament.
The Zips are led by Tavari Johnson, the rare fourth-year senior at his original school, who drops 20 points per game, five assists a night and has the MAC's best free-throw percentage. He's the offensive catalyst for a team with a variety of ways to win.
Statistically, this Akron team has the makings of a Cinderella. The Zips shoot a top-15 percentage both inside the arc and from long range. Akron plays unselfishly, forces turnovers and wins on the glass, especially in conference.
Looking at Akron's schedule, however, the results leave an upset-hungry bettor wanting more. Sure, a 29-5 season is nothing to sneeze at, yet all of those wins came against lesser competition.
Akron didn't beat a team ranked higher than itself in KenPom all season long, finishing 0-4 against Quads 1 and 2.
Unlike Miami (OH), which has caught hell for its schedule, Akron had better teams on the slate. The Zips played Purdue tough (on the road) for about 10 minutes before the Boilermakers pulled away and won by 18.
Ivy League regular-season champ Yale beat Akron by three in the Virgin Islands. Akron's only other meeting with a team in this tournament was a road loss to 14-seed Troy.
Haslametrics uses a "Paper Tiger" rating to determine which teams played up to better competition versus just beating teams beneath them. Akron ranks 315th in that stat.
Texas Tech Basketball
Like Akron, there's two realities about Texas Tech as well, one anecdotal and one analytical.
The anecdote is simple. The Red Raiders were dreaming of a top-three seed and a Final Four trip after a road win at top-ranked Arizona. They added that victory to a resume that already included wins over Duke and Houston.
In their next game, however, All-American candidate JT Toppin tore his ACL and was lost for the season. Conventional wisdom said Tech's season was functionally over — a fun "What If" for the rest of history.
Yet no one told the Red Raiders their season was over. A road win at Iowa State, in dominant fashion, proved this team had staying power.
Christian Anderson, an overqualified second star with Toppin healthy, now took on the lead dog role. He ended the season averaging over 38 minutes per game, plus 19 points and eight assists per night. That goes toe-to-toe with any team's most productive player.
Prior to the game where Toppin got hurt, T-Rank had Texas Tech as the 15th-best team in the country, ranking in the top 25 on both ends of the floor. In games played since the injury, T-Rank says Tech has played like the … 14th best team in the country.
The Red Raiders' offense, now flowing through Anderson, has thrived, ranking fifth in the country in that span. Tech's defense, however, has plummeted, ranking 109th in that time.
Some of this is fluky due to a small sample size. Each side of the ball is really being swung by three games, which is reflected by Tech's record in this span — exactly 3-3. The Red Raiders rattled off three wins, then ended the season on a three-game skid.
Do you believe the numbers or the story? Or do the eye test and a heart that's been through a few Marches know the answer lies somewhere between the two?
Akron vs Texas Tech Pick, Betting Analysis
Picking this game is like flipping two coins.
Do we get the solid Akron that always took care of business, or see the Zips fail against better competition once again? Does Texas Tech continue to outplay its post-Toppin expectations, or are the three recent losses indicative of a late-season swoon?
Johnson versus Anderson is the best point-guard matchup of the first round, yet it likely won't decide this game. Akron is going to be fine offensively. Instead, an upset, or cover, rests on the Zips' defense.
Texas Tech shot the fourth-best percentage from deep this season and ranked third in percentage of points coming from the 3-ball, per KenPom. The Zips have allowed teams to shoot over the top, ranking 23rd in percentage of points allowed from deep.
If Texas Tech rains triples, it won't be easy for Akron to keep up, yet the Zips have some firepower of their own, enough to at least keep this game within arm's reach.
I like Akron to cover the 7.5-point spread, and I like the Zips +4.5 in the first half, too.
My Pick: Akron +7.5 | Akron 1H +4.5
