Michigan and Connecticut. We are down to two for the National Championship. The NCAA Tournament has been a spectacle full of memorable moments. Let's finish strong.
Welcome to the March Madness National Championship edition of Action Network's betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, April 5 at 4 p.m. ET.
Favorites Reign
Recent History
Michigan is a 6+ point favorite against UConn.
Overall, favorites in the National Championship game are 42-13 straight up and 33-22 against the spread dating back to 1970. Even recently, the favorite has had an edge. They've won four in a row outright, going 7-1 SU in their last eight National Championship games since 2017. The only favorite to lose in that span? Gonzaga -4.5 vs. Baylor in 2021. Even going back to 2000, the favorite in the title game is 19-6 SU and 17-8 ATS.
Favorites of at least 3 points in the National Championship game are 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS dating back to 2000, including 22-6 SU and 17-11 ATS since 1985.
Since Duke's dominant run in 1999, this would be just the third spread of 7.5 or more in the Title Game at close if it ends up that way, joining:
• 2009 North Carolina (-7.5) vs. Michigan State. UNC won and covered.
• 2002 Maryland (-7.5) vs. Indiana. Maryland won and covered.
Cover Kings
Huskies Back
Since the 2023 NCAA Tournament, UConn is 18-1 ATS. The only team to cover against them? Furman this year. Going back to the 2009 dance, UConn is 34-7 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.
Dan Hurley is 11-0 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later in the NCAA Tournament, the best mark for any head coach in the seeding era, with a minimum of five games coached. With UConn, Hurley is also 15-0 ATS in the Round of 32 or later.
Overall as a program, UConn has won 19 consecutive games outright in the Sweet 16 or later, the second-longest streak all-time to UCLA's 28-game streak between 1964 and 1974 (before it was actually called the Sweet 16).
Blue Blood
Program History
Connecticut is a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread in national title games. That's the best win percentage in national title games, with the most wins, among all programs. UConn is 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS in the Final Four — National Semifinal and the Title Game — in program history.
If you add up the Huskies men's titles and women's titles in basketball, they have 18 total national championships. Second on the list is UCLA with 11 men's titles (no women's), then Kentucky with eight men's and Tennessee with eight women's titles. The only program with two or more titles in men's and women's is Connecticut.
Bad History
Cover Hell
ATS records for both teams this season:
Michigan: 19-20 ATS (36-3 SU)
UConn: 16-23 ATS (34-5 SU)
If Michigan or Connecticut win it all and finish below .500 ATS on the season, they would be the first champion under .500 ATS since Kentucky in 2012 and just the third to do so since 2000, with 2004 UConn. If UConn wins it all at 17-23 ATS, they would have the lowest ATS win pct of the last 30 years.
Lowest ATS Win Pct, NCAA Champion — Last 30 Years
2012 Kentucky, 43.6%
2004 UConn, 45.7%
1999 UConn, 46.9%
1997 Arizona, 46.9%
Domination
Five For Fighting
Michigan has scored 90+ points in all five tournament wins, winning each by double digits — the only team in history to accomplish either feat across five games. The closest comparison is 1989 Michigan, which scored 90+ in its first four games (R64 through Elite 8) before falling short of 90 in the Final Four and title game. No team has ever entered the championship game with five straight wins of 90+ points.
Michigan enters the national championship game with the fifth-highest average win margin of any title game team since 1985, winning its five tournament games by an average of +21.6 points. The four teams ahead of Michigan — 1999 Duke (+25.2), 2024 UConn (+25.0), 2016 Villanova (+24.2), and 1996 Kentucky (+24.0) — went a combined 3-1 in the title game, with only Duke falling short.
Michigan's 33-point win over Tennessee in the Elite 8 was just the second time in the seeding era a team has won that round by 33 or more points — the only other instance was 1989 Michigan (+37 vs. Virginia), which went on to win the national title. Michigan is also the first team since 1981 Indiana to win its Elite 8 and Final Four games by a combined 50+ points. Indiana won the title that year.
Michigan as a program rarely gets upset in the NCAA Tournament. As a favorite of 7 pts or more in the seeding era, Michigan is 24-1 SU. As a favorite of above 8 pts on the closing line, they are 21-0 SU. As a favorite of 6+ pts in the tournament, Dusty May is 33-1 SU and 27-7 ATS vs. non-conference opponents as a head coach with Michigan and FAU.
Long Tooth
Husky Ticket
What are the highest odds to win the title entering the NCAA Tournament since seeding began in 1978? Only four teams listed above 20-1 entering March Madness have won the title in that same time frame — if UConn can beat Michigan, they add their name to the list … for the third time.
2014 Connecticut
100-1 pre-tournament
1985 Villanova
35-1 pre-tournament
2011 Connecticut
25-1 pre-tournament
1983 NC State
25-1 pre-tournament
Based on odds entering the Final Four, history says Michigan will win it all. Top-two title odds favorites entering the Final Four have won it all in 20 of the past 21 tournaments (2014 UConn was the only team in that span to win outside the top two entering the Final Four).
Beating The Best
The Michigan List
Michigan's recipe is unique, but familiar.
Michigan ranks seventh since 1979 in average win margin entering the title game (+21.6 PPG), has won the Elite Eight and Final Four by a combined 51 points — the highest of any title game team ever — and is a 7.5-point favorite.
Only one other team in the past 45 years has entered the title game in the top 10 in average win margin, with a combined Elite Eight and Final Four margin of 40-plus points, and as a 6-point-or-greater favorite: 2023 UConn, which won the championship.
Experienced Longshot
Storring the Power
Odds to Win National Championship Entering NCAA Tournament:
Michigan: +350
UConn: +2200
UConn enters the title game at 22-1 to win it all before its Round of 64 game vs. Furman.
• This will be the 13th time since 1985 that a team with 20-1 odds or higher entering the tournament has made the final, facing a team with odds below that mark. The previous twelve 20-1 or higher long shots went 3-9 SU in the title game, with the winners: 2006 Florida, 1988 Kansas, and 1985 Villanova.
• This is the fourth time UConn will make the Final Four after having 15-1 odds or longer to win it all entering the NCAA Tournament — doing so in 2011, 2014, 2023 and 2026. UConn is now tied with Michigan State, Syracuse and Villanova in Final Four trips at 15-1 odds or longer entering the tournament.
• This is the third time UConn makes the National Championship with 20-1 or longer title odds entering the tournament — most of any school since 1985. Since 2010, we’ve had nine schools at 20-1 or longer. UConn has three of those.
Superlative Section
Team Outliers
Both teams have had success vs. non-conference opponents at 15-1 SU apiece. UConn lost to Arizona, while Michigan lost to Duke. Connecticut has played 63 non-conference games over the past four seasons — they are 57-6 SU and 45-18 ATS.
This season, UConn is 2-0 SU as an underdog, beating Duke and Illinois outright. Hurley has been listed as an underdog in five NCAA Tournament games, two with Rhode Island and three with UConn. He is 2-3 SU, but 4-1 ATS in those games, including the semifinal vs. Illinois.
The over/under is 144.5 — lowest for Michigan during its entire season and lowest since a year ago, March 2025 against Texas A&M.
UConn covered in the first half vs. Illinois on Saturday. The Huskies are 13-3-1 against the first-half spread in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games entering the Title Game on Monday night.
Both teams have an edge to the first-half over this year. In lined games for the first half, UConn is 22-12-1 to the over, while Michigan is 24-14 to the over, for a combined 46-26-1 to the first-half over this season.
When leading at the half in road or neutral-site games, Michigan has won 22 consecutive games outright dating back to February of 2025.
Let's look at the second-half spread now. Michigan is 20-14-3 against the second-half spread. The Wolverines have won the second half in all five NCAA Tournament games this year, covering the second-half spread in four in a row. UConn is 13-20-2 2H ATS this season after covering vs. Illinois and Duke — the Huskies haven't covered three straight in the second half all season.
All About Experience
Final Four experience showed up in the Final Four, with Dan Hurley and Dusty May advancing.
Final Four experience (year):
Dan Hurley: 3rd
Dusty May: 2nd
In NCAA Tournament history, the coach with more Final Four experience is 122-71 SU in the Final Four and national championship game. Since 1978 (start of seeding), the experienced Final Four coach is 73-46 SU and 64-54-1 ATS in the Final Four and national championship game.
Dan Hurley enters the national championship as a +7.5 underdog with two prior Final Four appearances on his résumé. Only once before has a coach with multiple Final Four appearances been as big an underdog in the title game — Larry Brown in 1988, when Kansas was +8.0 against Oklahoma. Brown won the title. Tom Izzo was +7.5 in 2009 with four prior Final Fours and lost. Hurley, who has already won two championships, is in rare company tonight.
Stone Cold
Money Bags
Don't let UConn grab a lead. UConn is 24-0 SU in NCAA and conference tournament games since 2020 when they are up at the half. This season, they are 29-1 SU up at the half, losing to just Marquette.
When UConn trails at the half, they are 3-2 SU on a neutral court since 2022, and this season, they are 3-1 SU on the road/neutral when trailing at the half, losing to St. John's.
Quiet on the Western Front
Arizona Fades
Since Arizona won the national title in 1997, no team west of Texas has won it all. After Arizona lost to Michigan on Saturday night, that streak continues for another year.
New Super Power?
Big Ten On Top
Big Ten is looking for the holy grail. Its first title since 2000 and, recently, its best teams have stepped up to the plate.
This is the conference's biggest title drought in tournament history. The second-biggest was between 1960-1976 and ended with Indiana's perfect season.
This season, Big Ten favorites are 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS facing non-Big Ten teams in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last three tournaments, Big Ten favorites are 34-6 SU and 29-11 ATS in the tournament after Illinois lost to UConn.
Overall, the Big Ten is 20-8 SU (17-11 ATS) in this year's NCAA Tournament, the second-most outright wins behind the SEC, which had 23 last year.
Since Michigan State's title in 2000, the Big Ten is 0-8 SU/ATS in championship games; only one were favorites, Wisconsin by a point in 2015. The Big Ten is 1-12 ATS in the National Championship game over the last 40 years, with 2000 Sparty the only cover:
If Michigan closes above a 6-point favorite, it would be the Big Ten's biggest favorite in a title game in the last 60 years. Indiana in 1976 closed -6 vs. Michigan, while 1979 Michigan State and Magic Johnson closed -5.5 vs. Indiana State.
Bad Apple
Can't Beat'em
On the other side, the Big Ten has been winless. It is 0-8 SU and ATS against UConn since the start of the 2022 season, with the Huskies beating Illinois, UCLA and Michigan State in this year's tournament.
Quick Turn
May vs. Hurley
Quick-turn games have been where UConn thrives. In the Round of 32, Elite Eight & National Title, Dan Hurley is 9-0 ATS, with the Huskies covering the spread by 10.9 PPG. Overall, Hurley is 10-1 ATS in these three rounds as a head coach with UConn and Rhode Island.
Dusty May has coached five games in these three rounds; he is 4-1 ATS, covering the spread by 9.3 PPG. A true fun juggernaut situation.
Down To Earth
In the Bet Labs database, which dates back to 2005, the public (51% of spread tickets or more) is 30-31-1 ATS in the Final Four and National Championship game — almost dead even. In this year's tournament, the public is 30-32 ATS, almost dead even as well.
When looking at the biggest public sides in just the Final Four and National Title game, they are 0-4 SU and ATS in the Final Four. Only one team has closed with even 62% of the tickets or higher since 2008, and that was Duke last year, who blew the lead and lost to Houston.
Biggest Public Sides in Final Four Since 2005
| Team | Matchup (ET) | Year/Result |
|---|---|---|
 | UNC (-2.5) vs. Kansas | 2008, Final Four UNC (70%) | Kansas, 84-66 |
 | Memphis (-1.5) vs. Kansas | 2008, Title Game Memphis (65%) | Kansas, 75-68 |
 | Duke (-4.5) vs. Houston | 2025, Final Four Duke (64%) | Houston, 70-67 |
 | LSU (-1.5) vs. UCLA | 2006, Final Four LSU (63%) | UCLA, 59-45 |
Bet Labs Systems
Slow It Down
The Final Four is in Indianapolis, Indiana, at Lucas Oil Stadium this year. In the seeding era, the venue also hosted in 1980, 1991, 1997, 2000, 2006, 2010, 2015, 2021 and now again in 2026.
Lucas Oil Stadium has hosted 40 college basketball games since 2013. Here are a few facts about those games and the arena. The first-half over is 26-16 in those 42 games at Lucas Oil, going over the total by over 2 PPG. Those first-half overs went 13-6 in the NCAA Tournament.
Pay attention to second-half unders late in the NCAA Tournament. At Lucas Oil Stadium, second-half unders are 18-11 in the NCAA Tournament.
In the national championship game since 2011, the second-half under is 11-3, going under the total by 3.6 PPG, and one of the three losses was the Virginia-Texas Tech overtime game.
In the Final Four and title game, the second-half under is 30-14, and in the Elite 8 or later, the second-half under is 68-36 (65%) since 2011.
UConn beat up on Illinois even after shooting 35.5% from the field. Teams have historically covered later in the tournament after a "poor" shooting performance.
Current match: UConn
First half unders have been profitable in the NCAA Tournament when the full game total actually gets bet up.
Current match: 1st half under
This system targets low-bet NCAA Tournament games where public influence is limited. Teams with under 40 percent spread support have historically outperformed in these spots.
Lower betting volume reduces public bias and creates value on contrarian sides. Backing teams with limited support has delivered consistent results.
When betting activity is below average, market inefficiencies increase. Teams with low spread support have been the most profitable in these tournament spots.
Current match: UConn
Conference tournament or NCAA Tournament finals tend to slow down, with possessions becoming more deliberate and defense tightening. These late-round games have consistently created value on the under.
As teams advance to semifinals and finals, familiarity and pressure lead to more controlled, lower-scoring games. Betting the under in these spots has produced strong historical results.
Current match: UConn/Michigan Under
