Arkansas vs. Colgate Odds, Early Analysis For NCAA Tournament First Round

Arkansas vs. Colgate Odds, Early Analysis For NCAA Tournament First Round article feature image
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Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Desi Sills.

#3 Arkansas vs. #14 Colgate Odds

Colgate Odds +9.5
Arkansas Odds -9.5
Moneyline +370 / -480
Over/Under 161.5
Time Friday, 12:45 p.m. ET
TV truTV
Odds as of Sunday and via DraftKings

How Arkansas & Colgate Match Up

Arkansas
vs.
Colgate
17
Tempo
25
95
eFG%
5
94
TO%
5
63
OR%
162
145
FTR
180
62
DeFG%
19
86
DTO%
300
109
DR%
76
117
DFTR
34
All stats via KenPom.

Instant Analysis

Get your track shoes on for this battle between two of the fastest teams in college basketball. Despite not starting its season until Jan. 2, Colgate earned its invitation with an 11-1 regular season and three-game destruction of the Patriot League Tournament. The Raiders are ranked 25th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom, and are the third-best 3-point shooting team (40%) in the country.

Arkansas is one of the few teams that plays faster than the Colgate, ranking 17th overall in adjusted tempo. Arkansas head coach Eric Musselman guided the Razorbacks to a second-place SEC finish, ending the regular season with an eight-game winning streak. Arkansas? Battle-tested. Colgate? A dangerous unknown.

But either way? This game is coming in hot. — Mike Randle

What To Know About Arkansas

The knock on Arkansas through late January was the lack of Quadrant 1 victories. Since then, the Razorbacks won 11 straight regular season conference games led by the most ebullient head coach in Division I, Eric Musselman.

The coaching job has been an absolute masterpiece after losing two stars to the NBA in Mason Jones and Isaiah Joe. Musselman gets the most out of a roster that entered the season 339th in minutes continuity. The Hogs have been one of the best in SEC in ball security and continually increased productivity in the paint with the return of Justin Smith from injury in mid-January. The season-long statistics do not do the Razorbacks justice for how efficient they have been over their nine-game winning streak leading up to the SEC semis since they got fully healthy.

Freshman Moses Moody was named the all-SEC Team, with Justin Smith being named to the second team all-SEC. How scorching is Razorback basketball? Per Torvik, only Illinois has more wins above bubble in the nation since Feb. 1. There really are no glaring holes for the speedy Hogs who deserve to be in the conversation as a potential final four team. — Collin Wilson

What To Know About Colgate

The Raiders are the 2021 Patriot League champions and finish the season 14-1, good enough to rank No. 9 in the NET rankings, which is ridiculous. Colgate has not lost since a Jan. 3 game against Army.

Tempo is the name of the game with the Raiders, as they rank 20th overall combined with a rank of 13th in effective field goal percentage. They are deadly in transition with a host of shooters who can knock it down from the perimeter. It’s hard to take much from their metrics since they played only three teams (Army, Holy Cross, Lafayette) in the regular season, but there’s no doubt this offense is extremely potent.

Jordan Burns is the star of the show. He and Nelly Cummings form an experienced backcourt that will give Colgate a chance at pulling off an upset or two, especially if Jack Ferguson is red-hot from 3 — and he usually is, shooting a staggering 49% on the season. They are a bit vulnerable in the post, but with a guard like Burns (look out when he gets hot) and their shooting ability, this team is dangerous even if the top-10 NET rating is mainly bogus. — Collin Wilson

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