Sharp Bettors Finding Value in Tonight’s ACC Showdown

Sharp Bettors Finding Value in Tonight’s ACC Showdown article feature image
Credit:

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

In tonight’s lone ACC matchup, No. 10 UNC will ride a four-game win streak into Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech.

The Hokies have struggled as of late, losing two straight games in which they gave up more than 90 points. Are sharp bettors ready to back Virginia Tech or is UNC the value play tonight?

Betting market analysis

Despite the public’s recency bias generating 63% of bets on the ranked Tar Heels, Virginia Tech has gone from 5 to 3.5-point underdogs. With a Sports Insights Pro membership, you can see that part of the line change was due to a steam move from the sharp book, Pinnacle.

On-court analysis

Our college hoops expert, Stuckey, notes that despite Virginia Tech’s recent struggles, they match up well against a team like UNC.

Why, you may ask? The answer comes from behind the 3-point line.

The Hokies shoot the 3 at a 39.7% rate, good for 22nd in the nation. The Heels defend the 3 at a 37.1% rate … 280th in the nation. UNC also ranks 341st in opponent 3-point attempts per game, meaning they give up a lot of open looks.

Open looks plus a team that shoots lights-out could equal an upset in the ACC tonight.

Photo by Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports