Baylor vs UCF Odds, Pick for Wednesday

Want to know how tough life in the Big 12 is? Just ask the Baylor Bears.

Baylor blew a six-point lead in the final two minutes, losing in overtime at Kansas State, then had a last second buzzer-beater break its hearts at Texas, before coming home for a three overtime battle with TCU, which the Bears lost.

No rest for the weary, with Baylor now headed to play the UCF Knights, a team with an elite defense and some big wins under their belts.

Two and a half weeks ago, Baylor was 14-2, with its lone losses coming against Michigan State and Duke. You don't even need further context to know that's a hot start with two totally acceptable losses.

Since then, Baylor has seen the terrors of America's best basketball conference, with the Big 12 sinking its teeth into the Bears, causing a three game losing streak.

The brutal Big 12 won't let up either. In Baylor's last 12 conference games, the Bears will meet just two teams ranked lower than 35th in the country by KenPom: this trip to UCF and the always nervy journey to play West Virginia.

If going to Morgantown is the easy game on your schedule, a gauntlet lays ahead.

Baylor might be up for the challenge, riding a top-10 offense to its 14 wins. Scott Drew has done an incredible job building a balanced roster, with six players averaging 9.6 or more points per game. That sextet is comprised of two freshmen, two juniors and two seniors, proving this Baylor team is built for this year and beyond.

The most crucial piece is RayJ Dennis, a grad transfer from Toledo. He's a high level ball handler, using Drew's ball-screen offense to put defenses into split second decisions time after time.

Even in their first year playing in the Big 12, the UCF Knights can agree that it makes for a brutal slate. This date with Baylor will be the second in a six game stretch against top-35 competition.

So far, the Knights have been surprisingly frisky in conference play. Johnny Dawkins and company failed to beat a power conference school or a top-100 team in non-conference play, but did manage to lose a home game to Stetson.

That didn't inspire much confidence heading into the toughest conference in America, but UCF has impressed. The Knights beat Texas on the road and toppled mighty Kansas at home.

Dawkins has built his team on the defensive end, where the Knights rank eighth in efficiency (further proof the Big 12 is brutal, UCF's eighth-ranked defense is only third-best in the conference).

The Knights funnel opposing slashers into Ibrahima Diallo, who ranks fourth in the country in block rate, after leading the Mountain West in that stat at San Jose State last year. UCF's opponents make just half its looks at the rim, near the top-10 nationally in that regard.

The issue is at the other end. UCF ranks 208th on offense and has been — by far — the worst offense in the Big 12 during league play. UCF's 39.6% shooting on 2-point baskets in conference play is dreadful, with its 3-point percentage (28.7%) just a hair ahead of last place in the Big 12 as well.

Don't get ahead of yourself: this shooting isn't ripe for regression.

This team also turns the ball over and looks like a mess on that end. UCF wants to grind out a win and outscore you with freebies at the foul line and offensive rebounds for easy putbacks.

UCF has a shot to steal another huge Big 12 win at home, if the Knights can keep this game ugly and low scoring.

That would require a low scoring and cold shooting night from this potent Baylor offense, and I don't know if that's in the cards here.

Baylor is shooting the third-best 3-point shooting percentage in the country this season, though the Bears have been cold of late. In six Big 12 games, Baylor is hitting only 29% from deep.

That goes a long way in explaining the Bears' three-game skid, which included losses in overtime, on a buzzer-beater, then in triple overtime.

The Bears are due to re-heat and nab a win.

Pick: Baylor -3