Big 12 Tournament Odds, Betting Picks (Wednesday, March 11): Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State, TCU vs. Kansas State

Big 12 Tournament Odds, Betting Picks (Wednesday, March 11): Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State, TCU vs. Kansas State article feature image
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Photo by Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: TCU Horned Frogs guard Desmond Bane (#1) and TCU Horned Frogs guard PJ Fuller (#4)

  • Updated betting odds Wednesday's Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State Big 12 Tournament matchup have the Cowboys favored by 6.5 points with a total 140.
  • In the later Big 12 tip-off, TCU is a small 2-point favorite over Kansas State, and the total is set at 126.
  • Mike Randle breaks down each matchup with a complete betting guide, including matchup analysis and a spread pick on each.

During Bill Self’s 17-year tenure as Kansas’ head coach, the Jayhawks have reached the Big 12 Tournament finals 10 times with eight championships. As the prohibitive favorite to reach its 11th final during that time, the question exists, “Can anyone beat Kansas?”

While the 2-seed Baylor Bears certainly have a reasonable case, today we examine four teams that will kickoff Big 12 Tournament action at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo.

Official: the 2020 #Big12MBB Championship bracket ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/yz4yYDed13

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) March 8, 2020

Big 12 Tournament First Round

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No. 9 Iowa State vs. No. 8 Oklahoma State

  • Spread: Oklahoma State -6.5
  • Total: 142
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPNU

This will be the third time Iowa State has played Oklahoma State this season, with the two teams defending their respective home courts.

However, the Cyclones roster will look significantly different from their 89-82 home win back on Jan. 21. Iowa State has been without star point guard Tyrese Haliburton since Feb. 10 with a wrist injury. In addition, sophomore guard Rasir Bolton and senior guard Prentiss Nixon are suffering from injuries, with Bolton’s status especially cloudy.

Steve Prohm says that Prentiss Nixon will start tomorrow. Rasir Bolton is still day to day. Anticipates it will be a game time decision.

— Tommy Birch (@TommyBirch) March 10, 2020

Oklahoma State is playing its best basketball of the season, winning three games in a row and six of its last eight. The Cowboys are just 14-17 against the spread (ATS) on the season, but have covered seven of their last 10 games. They should feast off an Iowa State defense that ranks last in conference play in adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed, as well as 2P% and 3P% allowed.

The Cowboys are a balanced team on offense generating only 26.7% of their points via the 3P, while ranking inside the top 100 with a 73.2% team free throw percentage.

Oklahoma State is finally back at full strength after point guard Isaac Likekele (10.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.4 apg) missed several games with mononucleosis. He has grabbed 10 rebounds per game over his past two contests, freeing up open shots for Lindy Waters (10.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and forward Cameron McGriff (12.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg).

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The Cyclones desperately need leading scorer Rasir Bolton (14.7 ppg) to play, but his effectiveness will likely be limited regardless. Iowa State has lost five of its last six games and its only victory away from Ames came in a 104-89 neutral-court win over Alabama on Nov. 28.

I’m taking the Cowboys to comfortably cover a line that has grown to -6.5 points against the shorthanded and struggling Cyclones.

THE PICK:  Oklahoma State -6.5 up to -8

No. 10 Kansas State vs. No. 7 TCU

  • Spread: TCU -1.5
  • Total: 127
  • Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPNU

This will be the third time Kansas State has faced TCU, with the Horned Frogs winning the previous two meetings. The winner of this game will face Baylor, who TCU just beat at home, 75-72, on Feb. 29.

Kansas State is just 14-17 ATS and failed to cover both games against TCU, while the Horned Frogs have covered two of their last three contests.

TCU has caught fire from beyond the arc, shooting 35% against Big 12 opponents to rank second among all teams. Senior guard Desmond Bane (16.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.9 apg, 44% 3P) is one of the hottest scorers in the conference. He is shooting a remarkable 60% (18 of 30) from beyond the arc in TCU’s last four games.

The Wildcats do not share the same marksmanship from deep, shooting just 29.8% from 3P against Big 12 opponents.

In the last two weeks, TCU has produced a victory over Baylor, led Kansas at halftime at Phog Allen Fieldhouse and dominated Oklahoma at home before a late-game miracle comeback by the Sooners. That places their current efficiency on par with those top three teams in this tournament.

Kansas State’s last victory away from home was on Nov. 9 at UNLV. The Wildcats have also played without freshman Montavious Murphy (5.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg), who had knee surgery late in February.

I’m taking TCU as a small favorite to earn a chance to knock off Baylor again in the Big 12 quarterfinals.

THE PICK:  TCU -1.5 up to -2.5

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