Biggest 2023 NCAA Tournament Line Moves: Spreads and Totals on the Move
Peter Aiken/Getty Images. Pictured: Kendric Davis of the Memphis Tigers
The bracket was released.
The spreads and totals came out.
Bettors have made their impact, and the markets are moving.
Entering the two greatest sports days of the year, let’s take a look at the biggest line moves in the Round of 64 for the NCAA Tournament.
Biggest Spread Moves
The biggest line move so far. Boise State opened as a 1.5-point favorite and are now 1.5-point underdogs, a full three-point move, according to Action Labs.
The betting markets are a bit split at the moment with the public on Northwestern but the handle currently favoring the Broncos.
The Wildcats would be the 34th NCAA Tournament team since 2005 to open as an underdog and close as a favorite. The previous 33 went almost an even 17-16 ATS, but 0-5 ATS over the last two tournaments.
This is mostly the Norchad Omier impact, but Drake is also getting some love. Drake opened +3.5 and is now down to +2 against Miami. The Bulldogs are getting more than 60% of the tickets and handle against the Hurricanes currently.
Finally, it’s the Rocky The Bulldog steam. UCLA opened -19 Sunday night but within an hour or so was bet down to -17.5, where the line currently sits.
According to Action Labs, the Bulldogs are actually one of the highest handle-percentage teams in the opening round, currently getting more than 90% of the handle in pre-Thursday markets. With this being the late game on Thursday, expect this to change drastically throughout that day.
Biggest Over/Under Moves
Currently, the biggest line move to date. The Missouri/Utah State over/under fell from 159.5 to its current 155.5 – and that move happened basically within the first 10 minutes lines opened on Sunday night.
This line actually got as low as 153.5 that night but quickly got bet up to its current number within a few minutes, too.
It is interesting to note that betting markets are currently trending to the over with the ticket and handle percentage – over 60% for this game.
A game literally 20 minutes after Utah State-Missouri is Kansas-Howard. That total opened at 149.5, found its way all the way down to 145.5 within 15 minutes of the Sunday opener, and has now found a home around 146.
It probably can’t hurt the movement trend that Kansas has gone under the total in seven straight games entering the Round of 64.
On the other end of the spectrum are FAU and Memphis. Their total opened at 150.5 and has been bet up to 153, making this game the “trendiest” over of the Round of 64, according to line movement.
Also, compared to the other markets we’ve discussed, this move was steady as we didn’t see the 153 number till at least Monday midday:
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