The Champions Classic is over (Michigan State mauled Kentucky and Duke took down a Darryn Peterson-less Kansas team), but there's two more juicy power-conference games to watch on Wednesday (No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 3 UConn and No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 8 Illinois).
For the sake of this piece, though, there's more betting value elsewhere in the sport, as I dive into three mid-major affairs that you should target for your betting card.
Read below for college basketball best bets, including three NCAAB expert picks and predictions for Wednesday, November 19.
College Basketball Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Hofstra vs. Temple
Neither Hofstra nor Temple is going to push the pace here. The two squads rank 230th and 186th, respectively, in offensive possession length, so I expect this game to have fewer than the 70 possessions projected by KenPom.
In particular, Hofstra’s overall tempo numbers are inflated by its opponents; UCF and Iona love to get up and down in transition.Thus, the efficiency tug-of-war will be crucial.
Hofstra is better defensively than offensively, and the Pride generally struggle to get easy looks (87th percentile in mid-range jumper frequency nationally, per CBB Analytics).
Temple boasts a true shot blocker in Babatunde Durodola, and forward Gavin Griffiths has made an impact in that area throughout his well-traveled career (Rutgers, then Nebraska, now Temple).
On the other end, Temple’s offensive numbers are inflated by a ridiculously efficient second half against La Salle in which the Explorers completely rolled over defensively.
The Owls’ biggest statistical strength is that they never turn it over – which is just fine for backing an under, as it prevents easy run-outs the other way via steals. Hofstra’s pressure defense can commit fouls, but Temple isn't a downhill team with a penchant for getting to the foul line (241st in free throw rate).
This game should be played in the half court on both ends, with only a few runouts here and there. So long as there are no explosions from beyond the arc, this number is too high for these two offenses.
Pick: Under 145 (Play to 143)
Youngstown State vs. Toledo
This Ohio-based battle features two outstanding offenses going head-to-head.
The host Rockets have tilted heavily towards the offensive end for years, and this season brings more of the same. Per KenPom, Toledo ranks 92nd on offense and 342nd on defense.
Every Rocket opponent has hit 1.07 PPP or better. However, the offense has been excellent, helping offset that imbalance, and some of the “under the hood” defensive numbers look far better than bottom-25 in the country.
The Rockets are forcing turnovers at a solid rate, and they never foul. The 2-point percentage defense is a problem (60.7% allowed, 328th nationally), but the Rockets can compensate in other areas.
Youngstown State’s defense rates significantly higher, per KenPom, but the results have been middling and the personnel is shaky beyond foul-prone shot-swatter Imanuel Zorgvol and versatile forward Cris Carroll.
Toledo’s lethal guard group — led by scoring guard Sonny Wilson, dynamite freshman creator Leroy Blyden Jr. and deadeye gunner Kyler Vanderjagt — should get what it wants against the Penguins' perimeter defenders.
The biggest edge in this entire matchup is Toledo’s work on the offensive glass against Youngstown’s horrific defensive rebounding.
The Rockets’ frontcourt of Sean Craig and Austin Parks will feast against the vulnerable Penguins, who have conceded 10+ offensive rebounds in all three Division I games (10, 16, 17).
Those second-shot opportunities will be enough of a boost for Toledo to get a key home win against an in-state foe.
Pick: Toledo -1.5 (Play to -2.5)
Campbell vs. Weber State
The visiting Camels have a new coach this year, and that's led to a strong start to the campaign despite some challenging headwinds in the shooting department.
The Camels played 32 excellent minutes at Wisconsin (down 67-62 with 7:30 remaining before a ludicrous Badger run) and competed for all 40 at West Virginia. They also handled Western Michigan.
After winning a national title at Florida, John Andrzejek overhauled this roster, and the returns have been excellent.
Those strong results have happened despite opponents shooting 36.5% from deep (281st nationally) and 80.6% from the foul line (347th). Campbell could see beneficial regression soon.
The Camels are playing faster and feeding big men Dovydas Butka and Chris Fields Jr., a similar structure to Andrzejek’s Gator teams.
Campbell also has an outstanding scoring guard in DJ Smith — a key part of Robert Morris’ NCAA Tournament team last season — and the Camels also have an immensely talented sophomore guard in Jeremiah Johnson who thrives getting downhill.
Weber State has had some solid results of its own (took Utah to overtime, lost by 10 at Utah State). The Wildcats have benefited tremendously from opponents shooting 22.1% from 3, though – one of the 10-lowest marks in the country.
The travel west to altitude is admittedly concerning. But with a reenergized program and some underlying numbers pointing Campbell’s way, I’ll take the Camels on the road.
Pick: Campbell +3.5 (Play to +2)
