The NCAA Tournament bubble is in constant flux, with 10 or more teams on either side of the cut line constantly affecting the projected fate of their fellow bubble dwellers. It can make betting on futures for those teams a difficult moving target, with odds constantly shifting and markets opening and closing.
As of this writing, DraftKings has 22 teams with a future prop related to the bubble, asking if this team will or will not make the NCAA Tournament.
Those odds range from fairly safe Miami (FL) at -1400 to go dancing, all the way to Washington at +1300. In between those two outliers, there's plenty of value if you're willing to dig into some bracketology and future schedules, putting teams in the right position to make their move.
Here are my favorite bets at currently listed odds, with some wiggle room as the winds of the bubble change each day.
(Kalshi also has similar options under Men's March Madness Round of 64 Qualifiers, but with 100+ teams to trade. And remember the key difference is Round of 64, which means if a team makes the First Four, your trade is depending on the result of that game. Kalshi is legal in most states, and if you want to get started, be sure to use our Kalshi promo code.)
Ohio State: NO (+120)
We'll start with the Buckeyes, who currently sit at 17-9 this season.
The DraftKings odds swung with Tuesday's win over Wisconsin, which was Ohio State's best resume victory this season. That's not saying much given Wisconsin's up and down season and the location of that game in Columbus.
That was only Ohio State's second win over a team projected in the NCAA Tournament, with the other coming over bubbly UCLA.
The schedule down the stretch doesn't help the Buckeyes. Ohio State goes to Michigan State and Iowa before hosting Purdue. Each of those would then eclipse Wisconsin as Ohio State's best win, but stealing any of those games won't be easy.
March begins with a trip to Happy Valley to face Penn State. That's a dangerous game, since a win doesn't move the needle but a loss is deadly. Then, the Buckeyes finish the regular season with a massive game at home against Indiana.
Bracket Matrix currently has the Buckeyes as the second team behind the cutline, which means 2-3 down the stretch is likely not enough without some Big Ten Tournament magic. T-Rank is more bullish, with the Bucks currently the last team in the field with a 56% chance of a bid.
At best, Ohio State is right on the cutline before any bid thieves or late charging bubble teams emerge.
I'll take the plus-odds here.
Kalshi: 44% to NOT Reach Round of 64 (+108)
San Diego State: NO (+135)
The same is true here. The Aztecs are a total coin flip right now.
Bracket Matrix has San Diego State as the last team out, while T-Rank has the Aztecs two off the cutline, with a 46.4% chance of a bid.
Tuesday's home loss to Grand Canyon hurts, with more potential landmines ahead.
A home date with Utah State is the Aztecs' chance for a resume-lifting upset, while games at Colorado State and against UNLV are real traps that could sink San Diego State.
The key game comes on Saturday, February 28, when San Diego State faces New Mexico, which is equally on the bubble. The Lobos are just three spots out of the field on Bracket Matrix.
That game could pop the loser's bubble and unfortunately for the Aztecs, it comes on the road at The Pit. New Mexico defends its home court at the fifth-best rate in KenPom's metrics.
If San Diego State can't steal that game, it'll head to the conference tournament in need of major work.
Kalshi: 52% to NOT Reach Round of 64 (-223)
TCU: YES (+160)
Let's take a break from hating and bet on some positivity.
My lone bet in favor of a bubble team making a move gets bestowed upon the Horned Frogs, who are quietly lurking in the middle of the Big 12's pack.
Jamie Dixon's squad has two wins that no bubble team can match, having beaten Florida in November and Iowa State earlier this month.
Ohio State's best win is merely Wisconsin, which TCU also beat this season.
The Horned Frogs, however, match some of those wins with disastrous losses, including a season-opening game against New Orleans. Even with those blemishes, Bracket Matrix has TCU in the field and T-Rank gives Dixon's club a 54% chance of a bid.
The schedule helps, for a team with the big pelts already collected this season. TCU's only remaining game against a tournament team in the regular season comes at Texas Tech, which just lost All-American JT Toppin for the season.
A 4-1 finish would put the Frogs in great position.
Kalshi: 28% to Reach Round of 64 (+334)
Texas A&M: NO (+330)
OK, let's get back to hating and throw a Hail Mary. The Aggies started the season 17-4 and sat atop the SEC standings.
Things change fast in college hoops. Texas A&M dropped four straight games before stopping the bleeding with a Wednesday win over Ole Miss.
Right now, stopping the bleeding would be plenty to earn a bid. Bracket Matrix has the Aggies as a 10 seed, eight clear of the cut line and fully avoiding the First Four.
But trouble could be lurking around the bend. A&M has five more SEC games, all against KenPom top-55 teams, with three of those games on the road.
There's also a chance the early season success of this team was smoke and mirrors, particularly on the defensive end. In SEC play, Texas A&M is allowing opponents to shoot the 3-ball at the fourth-highest rate, but teams are making those 3s at the lowest percentage in the conference.
In the Aggies first eight SEC games, when they went 7-1, opponents took 25 triples per game and made only 29% of those shots. None of A&M's 13 SEC opponents have made better than 36% from deep against the Aggies.
Those makes are coming, maybe in Texas A&M's next two outings. Oklahoma is the second-best shooting team in SEC play, and Arkansas is top-25 in the country this season.
It probably takes at least three losses in the Aggies next six games (five regular season and the SEC Tournament opener), but that's in play for a team looking to stop a late-season slide.
Kalshi: 16% to NOT Reach Round of 64 (+222)
