Saturday’s College Basketball Betting Previews: Oklahoma State-Kansas, Louisville-Florida State
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas Jayhawks forward Dedric Lawson (1), Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Lindy Waters III (21).
It’s the most wonderful time (of the week). Among the 21 ranked teams in Saturday’s college basketball docket, No. 16 Louisville travels to Tallahassee for a matchup with No. 22 Florida State after No. 13 Kansas faces unranked Oklahoma State at Allen Fieldhouse.
Which sides present the most value? Let’s break them down.
>> All odds as of Friday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NCAAB odds and track your bets.
Betting Odds: Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks
- Spread: Kansas -11.5
- Over/Under: 142.5
- Time: Noon ET
- TV: ESPN
The Jayhawks (9-14 against the spread) failed to cover in six of their past seven duels while the Cowboys (8-14 ATS) delivered the same fate in four of their past five affairs.
This matchup would appear to be a prime bounce-back spot for Bill Self’s crew in a typical season. But after losing Udoka Azubuike (hand) and Silvio De Sousa (ineligible) for the season, they’ll be without their top sharpshooter Lagerald Vick (personal) and defender Marcus Garrett (ankle).
Although the Jayhawks own the fourth-rated Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (100.7 opponents’ points per possession) in Big 12 play, their opponents have manufactured the second-highest scoring rate (39.1%) from behind the arc. They’ve yielded the fourth-highest 3-point clip (35.8%), too.
Not only has Oklahoma State accrued the league’s highest scoring rate from the perimeter (39.9%), but it’s also shooting the ball at the second-highest clip (37.7%).
Expect Lindy Waters III (12.2 points per game) to attack Kansas’ youthful guards off the dribble before spacing them out from 3-point land via his 45.6% clip.
The Cowboys should control the glass as well — a credit to the third-highest rebounding percentage (29.5%) in conference play. The Jayhawks’ depleted length has resulted in the second- and the fourth-lowest defensive (30.7%) and offensive rebounding rate (27.8%), respectively.
The Jayhawks are 5-8 (35.8%) ATS at home this season, and this line is too large to cover with a shortened rotation.
THE PICK: Cowboys +11.5
Betting Odds: Louisville Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles
- Spread: Florida State -2
- Over/Under: 145
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
The Cardinals (12-9-2 ATS) have been red-hot of late, covering in four of their past five games. Meanwhile, the Seminoles (9-13 ATS) aren’t too far off, covering in three of their past four duels.
This one should boil down to pace, with Florida State presenting the 92nd-highest Adjusted Tempo (69.8 possessions per 40 minutes) against Louisville’s methodical bunch. While Chris Mack’s unit owns the 22nd-ranked AdjD in the nation, it has exhibited issues limiting its foul trouble in ACC play — via the fourth-highest opponents’ free-throw rate (33.3%).
Leonard Hamilton’s troops are tallying the second-highest free-throw rate (38.3%) during their conference docket, guided by point guard Trent Forrest (56.4%).
The Seminoles boast a clear-cut size advantage, along with topping the Cardinals’ respective rebounding rate at both ends. Expect them to push the ball in transition often to attack their opposition’s biggest weakness.
On the flips side, Louisville has relied on 37.5% of its offense to come from behind the arc — the fourth-highest in-conference rate. But FSU is letting up the fourth-lowest scoring percentage (29.3%) from that area, so it should stymie Jordan Nwora (17.8 pppg) and Co. in a letdown spot before facing Duke on Tuesday.
THE PICK: Florida State -2