College Basketball Odds, Picks for Texas State vs. North Texas: Betting Value on Tuesday’s Low NIT Total
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Thomas Bell.
- Texas State and North Texas go to battle in an in-state NIT matchup on Tuesday.
- A slow pace is expected, so updated odds make the over/under 117.5.
- Check out our full betting guide and top pick for this matchup below.
Texas State vs. North Texas Odds
|Texas State Odds|
-110o / -110u
|North Texas Odds|
-110o / -110u
By D.J. James
North Texas and Texas State battle in the opening round of the NIT.
These are two of the slowest teams in the NCAA. North Texas plays a touch faster than Virginia, so it ranks 357th, according to KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. Texas State comes in at 337th.
To expect anything other than a rock fight would be silly, especially after seeing how the Mean Green exited the Conference USA Tournament in a 42-36 loss to Louisiana Tech.
North Texas forces opponents to play to its speed. It utilizes 21.2 seconds per possession on offense and 18.1 seconds per possession on defense. Texas State averages 19.2 and 17.7 seconds per possession on offense and defense, respectively.
Since the Bobcats will slow themselves down without the help of the Mean Green, the under should hit in this game.
T.J. Johnson won the Sun Belt regular-season title in both of his first two seasons leading Texas State. But the group fumbled away its first-round matchup in the Sun Belt Tournament in both years.
The Bobcats entered this year’s tournament as one of the hottest teams in the nation (nine straight wins) before losing, 79-72, to Louisiana.
Texas State plays at one of the slowest paces in the country and leans on its defense to keep it competitive. The Bobcats are tenacious on that end of the floor despite owning the 337th-tallest roster in Division I.
They create steals at the fifth-highest rate in the country thanks to their ball pressure. The group hasn’t been fantastic at guarding the perimeter, though, allowing opponents to hit 35% from deep.
Despite not taking many attempts from deep, the Bobcats convert on 38% of their shots from 3-point territory. Over 70% of Texas State’s shot attempts come from 2-point territory, where the program converts at a 49% clip.
Senior guard Caleb Asberry is the leader of the offense, as he averages 14 points per game while hitting just shy of 40% of his 3-point attempts.
The group has been clutch in close games this season, winning half of its Sun Belt matchups by five points or less. That could be crucial, as this matchup with North Texas is anticipated to be a low-scoring, tight affair.
After a program-record 16 conference wins and the regular-season Conference USA title, the North Texas Mean Green were left without a ticket to the Big Dance just one year removed from their first-round upset over Purdue.
North Texas’ historic regular season was highlighted by a 15-game win streak and the second-best record in the country over their last 23 games, behind only Murray State.
The Mean Green’s regular-season success was a result of domination on the defensive end. No team in the country limited opponent scoring better than the Mean Green, who held opposing teams to just 55.8 points per game. North Texas ranked fifth in 3-point defense while also limiting teams to just 14.3 attempts from deep, which led the nation.
The Mean Green also play the slowest pace of any team in college basketball.
The offense for the Mean Green has been a liability. They are decent from an efficiency standpoint — they have to be with how few possessions they limit a game to — but consistency has been an issue, as well as depth.
Tylor Perry is a leader on the team not only in scoring but as a game manager. If he gets into foul trouble, the Mean Green can fall into disarray quickly.
Foul trouble hasn’t been an issue for UNT for the most part, but it could be if the game speeds up. North Texas commits a foul on 23.5% of plays — but because of its slow pace, it has limited that glaring flaw.
The team as a whole also struggles severely from the charity stripe, making just 65.4% of free throws, one of the 25 worst marks in the country.
Texas State vs. North Texas Betting Pick
By D.J. James
Expect this game to have just over 110 points scored.
Neither team excels on the offensive end. North Texas will probably win by a a few points, but either way, don’t anticipate either team suddenly changing how it plays in the postseason.
The defensive turnover tendencies of each team will be a cherry on top of what already should cash an under. Neither team will score much in transition since they prefer the slow pace of play anyways.
Take the under at 118, and play it to 116.5. There’s still value in the line.
Pick: Under 118 (Play to 116.5)