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Monday NCAAB Odds, Picks: Three Man Weave’s 3 Best Bets, Featuring Weber State vs. Northern Colorado

Monday NCAAB Odds, Picks: Three Man Weave’s 3 Best Bets, Featuring Weber State vs. Northern Colorado article feature image
Credit:

Photo by Sam Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: Daylen Kountz (Northern Colorado)

While Duke vs. Miami and Texas vs. Kansas take center stage tonight, Three Man Weave’s Jim Root is targeting three games with the most value on the college basketball slate.

So, dive in below and get your top college basketball odds and best bets for Monday.


Three Man Weave’s Monday College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Jim is targeting from Monday’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game
Time
Pick
8 p.m. ET
Under 139.5
8 p.m. ET
Under 136
11 p.m. ET
Northern Colorado ML -102
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Idaho State vs. Northern Arizona

Monday, Feb. 6
8 p.m. ET
ESPNU
Under 139.5

By Jim Root

Monday’s slate has a limited quantity of marquee games. With only two power-conference matchups, I must turn toward the mid- and low-major world.

That approach begins with two of the slower squads in the Big Sky. Idaho State and Northern Arizona both rank outside the top 200 nationally in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom, and they are even slower on the offensive end.

The first meeting had 65 possessions — identical to KenPom’s projection for this matchup.

There’s little risk of this turning into a track meet.

That’s especially true due to the spot. Both teams played 48 hours ago and then had to travel. NAU is returning home from a crushing one-point loss at Montana, while Idaho State just lost in two overtimes at home and now must head to Flagstaff.

Two tired teams playing at elevation — Flagstaff is the third-highest elevation in college basketball — is a terrific recipe for an under. I anticipate this one landing below the projected pace.

The risk, as with any under wager, is possible efficiency. Neither team is particularly stout defensively. The stars on each side will likely get theirs: Idaho State’s Brayden Parker is a punishing paint force, while NAU’s Jalen Cone is a deadly perimeter sniper.

Neither squad has much depth in scoring options, though, and Idaho State does a terrific job of taking away the 3-point line.

Considering the tempo of both squads — combined with the travel spot for both — the under is an appealing wager.

Pick: Under 139.5 (Play to 137)

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Mississippi Valley State vs. Alcorn State

Monday, Feb. 6
8 p.m. ET
HBCU GO
Under 136

By Jim Root

A second under digs even deeper into the depths of Division I.

However, the theme remains: two slow offensive squads battling after playing tight games 48 hours ago.

MVSU ranks 280th nationally in offensive possession length, per KenPom. Alcorn State ranks 299th. Both squads earned narrow victories on Saturday.

Alcorn State has the luxury of not having to travel, and the Braves clawed their way into a tie atop the SWAC standings. They have been surging on both ends of the floor, and now they play one of the worst offenses in the country.

To their credit, the Delta Devils have been more competitive than in years past. New coach George Ivory has hit the brakes on offense, and the defense has become less of a sieve. That’s consistent with his track record after building some stout defensive squads at Arkansas-Pine Bluff from 2009-21.

Of course, the Delta Devils also cannot score. They have scored more than 0.90 points per possession just seven times in 24 games. MVSU ranks 362nd nationally in 2-point field goal percentage, a dismal number that portrays the dearth of scoring ability across the roster.

SWAC games run the risk of turning into free-throw contests. Both defenses rank in the bottom-40 nationally in free-throw rate, and the charity stripe is MVSU’s best hope of scoring efficiently.

The officiating will be vital to avoid a free-throw parade.

The confluence of factors here point toward both the under and an Alcorn side bet. I’m more confident in the under, however, so I will ride with that.


Weber State vs. Northern Colorado

Monday, Feb. 6
11 p.m. ET
ESPNU
Northern Colorado ML -102

By Jim Root

If you read the first blurb about Idaho State-Northern Arizona, you’ll recall that Idaho State lost a double-overtime game on Saturday. The victor in that game? Weber State, which must also now head to altitude 48 hours after that marathon.

That immediately gives an edge to Northern Colorado, though the Bears also had to travel after a Saturday road tilt.

In fact, Northern Colorado has played (and lost) three straight road games. A return to Greeley will be a welcome respite — particularly against an opponent that just played 50 minutes of competitive basketball.

At 2-9 in the league, Northern Colorado is going through a disappointing season. The Bears were selected No. 2 in the Big Sky’s preseason poll, but a lack of interior defense has consistently doomed them.

Steve Smiley’s squad ranks 350th in 2-point percentage defense and 362nd in block rate.

Whether Weber State can fully punish that vulnerability or not is the key to this selection.

Undersized forward Dillon Jones shot just 5-for-16 from the field in the first meeting, but he managed 26 points, thanks to hitting 14 free throws. Alex Tew, a 6-foot-11 center, could have a big game, but Weber rarely runs its offense through him.

Offensively, Northern Colorado will need to hit jumpers to beat Weber’s compact defense.

Fortunately for the Bears, they have multiple high-level shot-makers. Dalton Knecht, Matt Johnson II and Riley Abercrombie can torch the nets from deep. Daylen Kountz is more of a slasher, but he can knock down open 3s, as well.

I think Northern Colorado wins, and to save a little juice, I’m taking moneyline so long as it’s -115 or below. If it were to get any higher, I will lay up to -2.

Pick: Northern Colorado ML -102 (Play to -2)


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