NCAAB Odds, Pick for Alabama vs LSU

Two teams in completely different spots within the SEC face off on Saturday in Baton Rouge.

Alabama enters this one currently sitting tied for first in the conference standings, and the Tide have looked dominant at times in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, LSU is 4-5 in league play and has lost four of its last five contests.

Can the Tigers step up a couple weight classes and keep it competitive with this dynamic Alabama team? Here's NCAAB odds and a pick for Alabama vs. LSU.

The book is out on the Crimson Tide at this point in the season.

Alabama can score it as efficiently as any team in the country, and the metrics back that up.

What could hold this team back come March is its inability to get stops.

Part of that is its positional defense, but the other key element is the weak defensive rebounding, which Auburn absolutely exposed on Wednesday.

Bama ranks outside the top 200 nationally in KenPom's Defensive Rebounding %, and it really struggles keeping opposing bruisers off the rim.

In the first matchup against LSU, Alabama was able to win the rebounding battle, which ultimately led to a comfortable victory.

Doing that again should be focal point No. 1 for Nate Oats' team, followed by guarding the arc given the plethora of capable shooters LSU has on its roster.

LSU is similar to Alabama in the sense that it likes to play fast and get some easy buckets in transition.

The Tigers are also mediocre defensively, and in their recent losing skid, they've been unable to contain opposing backcourts.

The problem for LSU is it doesn't quite have the same level of firepower on offense that Alabama possesses.

There have been flashes of high-level efficiency — like in the 21-point beatdown of Arkansas, or the 86-80 victory over Wake Forest earlier in the year — but it hasn't been consistent.

To have a chance on Saturday, the Tigers will need to be at their best and also take better care of the basketball.

Turning it over against Alabama typically ends very poorly, as the Tide are elite in transition going the other way.

When these two teams met a few weeks back, LSU went for 88 points and knocked down 11 triples against a mediocre Bama perimeter defense.

I can't guarantee that the Tigers will knock down double-digit 3-pointers again, but I feel comfortable saying they should be able to, once again, have plenty of success offensively against the Tide.

Additionally, Alabama's 3-point numbers take a significant dip when the Tide leave Tuscaloosa.

Expect LSU to keep this one tight throughout behind a fired up home crowd, and I actually give the Tigers a slight chance of pulling off the outright upset.

Give me LSU as a home dog in what should be a fun one in the Bayou.

Pick: LSU +6.5