Dayton vs Duquesne Odds, Pick for Friday

The Dayton Flyers have been one of the more impressive college basketball teams after losing Malachi Smith at the beginning of the season. The Flyers are riding a nine-game winning streak and will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Duquesne Dukes on Friday. The Dukes have been slightly more underwhelming, but have notable wins over Bradley and UC Irvine.

Both of these teams tend to play at a slow pace, but each have glaring issues defensively.

The Flyers rank in the bottom 15 in Adjusted Tempo and pretty consistently slow opposing teams down. However, they rank 99th in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 11th on the offensive end.

The Flyers are consistently knocking down threes, which has propelled them to plenty of their wins. Dayton is shooting over 40% from deep and ranks in the top 20 in 3-point attempt rate. Meanwhile, the Dukes are allowing opponents to shoot near 35% from distance and rank 297th in Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality.

DaRon Holmes II, Kobe Elvis, Nate Santos and Koby Brea are all shooting over 36% from outside. Considering's Dayton's multiple threats from distance, Duquesne will surely have trouble covering all of that ground. Elvis is questionable, however, so keep an eye on the injury report.

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Duquesne might find a hole in Dayton’s rebounding game. The Flyers rank 230th in offensive rebounding and 303rd in defensive rebounding, while the Dukes rank 86th and 209th, respectively. This should open up glass for the likes of Fousseyni Drame, Andrei Savrasov and David Dixon to gather a ton of offensive boards and put-back chances.

Much like Dayton, Duquesne also fires away from deep. The Dukes rank in the top 60 in 3-point attempt rate and are shooting 33.9% from distance. Drame, Savrasov and Kareem Rozier lead the way for the Dukes in the shooting department.

However, Dayton is marginally better at guarding the perimeter, with opponents shooting slightly under 33% from deep on the Flyers. Either way, expect Duquesne to hit shots from the outside, and if not, gather the offensive board for a second-chance bucket.

One hindrance to taking the over in this game is that neither team forces many turnovers. On the other hand, each team shoots well enough from 3-point range and has an offensive advantage, which can force this matchup to go over the total. Look for points at the free-throw line and second-chance opportunities on the offensive glass.

Take this game over the total at 138.5, and play it to 140.

Pick: Over 138.5 (Play to 140)

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