College Basketball Odds, Pick for Michigan vs Illinois

The Illinois Fighting Illini held a steady lead on the road against Michigan State on Saturday afternoon, but were unable to hit a field goal over the final six minutes of the game, which allowed the Spartans to pull out a win. As a result, their home game against Michigan should be a great spot to bet them. Dug McDaniel, the Wolverines’ best player, is ineligible to play for at least two more road games. In the four road games he has missed, Michigan has lost by an average of 19.5 points.

Illinois matched up well with the Wolverines and already crushed them in Ann Arbor, so the result should be no different at home.

Here's college basketball odds and a pick for Michigan vs. Illinois.

Michigan doesn't have the depth to go into a game against a ranked opponent without its best player. In order to attack Illinois at one of its weakest points and remain in this game, the Wolverines need to hit 3s. McDaniel shoots over 35% from 3, so Nimari Burnett and Terrance Williams will have to step up in this outing. As a unit, Michigan is hitting over 36% from deep and shoots 3s quite often.

Opponents are shooting over 32% on the Illini, but Illinois ranks seventh in 3-point attempt rate on defense. Adding on, the Illini rank in the top-40 in Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality. As weak as Illinois has been with defending the 3 against certain Big Ten opponents (i.e. Northwestern and Nebraska), they can zero in on the only two consistent outside threats.

Michigan can crash the glass on the offensive end, but the Wolverines struggle to do so defensively. The Illini rank better in rebounding on both ends of the floor and can rebound from essentially every position with a size advantage. Michigan needs Tarris Reed Jr. and Olivier Nkamhoua to grab boards, or Illinois will carry a tremendous edge on the glass.

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Illinois is shooting 3s more often than 2s, and at a similar rate as Michigan. They aren't hitting as many, but the Illini have five players over 33.5% from outside. Michigan ranks in the top-100 in Open 3 Rate defensively, but Illinois will test the depth in Michigan’s front court.

Illinois plays fast when it has a chance, especially when Terrence Shannon Jr. is able to get out in transition. This is partly why he is able to get to the foul line so frequently. The Illini rank in the top-45 in the country in points per possession in transition, per Shot Quality. Michigan ranks in the bottom 65.

Outside of Shannon, Marcus Domask and Quincy Guerrier can draw fouls and typically earn multiple trips to the free-throw line per game. Also, Michigan has a tendency to foul opponents, which could get even worse on the road.

Illinois is poised for a breakout game after losing a game it shouldn't have on Saturday. The defense should have some extra pep in its step and should limit Michigan’s 3-point chances. Since Michigan isn't too efficient on the inside, the Illini should win this game by a wide margin. Take them at -16 and play them to -18.

Pick: Illinois -16 (Play to -18)