Michigan vs Purdue Odds, Pick: Mauling Expected

College basketball media is slowly but surely realizing the issues with the basketball program in Ann Arbor. The Michigan Wolverines are struggling this season, with as many off-the-court concerns as on-court losses.

As often is the case, the gambling world provides some perfect context for explaining just how bad things have gotten.

The Wolverines will travel to face the No. 1 team in the Big Ten on Tuesday night, with Purdue listed as 17.5-point favorites. For Michigan to be such a big underdog against a conference opponent, the issues with the Wolverines must be deep and problematic.

Can Michigan bounce back and hang around in West Lafayette?

Where do you start with this team? Unfortunately for the Wolverines, several paragraphs of non-basketball nonsense is needed to even put this disaster season into context.

Juwan Howard has only coached seven of Michigan's 18 games so far, missing the first 10 games after heart surgery. He missed his 11th game when he allowed assistant coach Phil Martelli to assume the head-coaching duties in his native Philadelphia against Penn State, where Martelli's son is also an assistant coach. It was a curious decision for a coach embroiled in controversy, and the Wolverines lost that game.

Just weeks prior, rumors leaked out of Ann Arbor detailing an altercation between Howard and Michigan's strength coach. That was considered especially troubling for a coach who has gotten into some kerfuffles in his time at Michigan.

In case you needed one more issue, Michigan's leading scorer Dug McDaniel is currently not allowed to play road games, after Howard levied a mysterious and somewhat unprecedented only-road-games suspension for undisclosed academic reasons.

McDaniel has only missed one game so far, with his presence heavily felt. Michigan tied a season low, scoring only 57 points, with a clear season-worst 0.87 points per possession. The Wolverines trailed by just one point with 2:38 to play, but without McDaniel to create offensively, their offense ran dry. Michigan wouldn't score again, losing by seven points (and failing to cover a 6.5-point spread).

It's absolutely worth considering fading the Wolverines in all six games they'll play without McDaniel.

The parallels between 2023-24 Purdue and 2018-19 Virginia are becoming a little more clear.

Those two teams carry the distinction of being the team that needed to respond to a loss to a 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament. In Virginia's case, some young players grew into bigger roles, newcomers at certain spots bolstered the roster and the top-end talent took another leap. By season's end, the Cavaliers rode those improvements, and a March miracle or two, to the ultimate redemption, winning the national title the year after their heartbreaking loss.

Purdue is looking to repeat that pattern, and the Boilermakers are off to a great start. They survived non-conference play undefeated and have lost just twice, both in true road games against conference foes. Reigning Wooden Award winner Zach Edey has been equally dominant this season, but Purdue's fate will be decided by the supporting cast.

Sophomores Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith are both playing sharper this season. Loyer has grown into an elite shooter, increasing his 3-point percentage from 33% to 43% this season. Smith leads the Big Ten in assist rate.

Trey Kaufman-Renn has played well both next to Edey or holding down the fort when Edey gets a much needed rest. Perhaps the biggest addition for Purdue came via the transfer portal, with graduate student Lance Jones acting as a calming presence in the backcourt. Purdue expected that of David Jenkins last season, though he disappeared and was scoreless in the tournament loss.

Purdue as a long way to go before repeating Virginia's feat, yet Matt Painter has to feel like his team has a shot to do so in April.

Is it too reductive to look at this game as a national title contender playing a home game against a team in shambles without its best player? I don't think so. I mean, at what line would you feel comfortable taking Michigan here?

Michigan is 6-12 ATS this season, with no evidence of turning things around. Maybe the Wolverines steal one or look impressive soon, yet I can't imagine it coming on the road in the hells of Mackey Arena.

Pick: Purdue -18 or Better