NCAAB Odds, Pick for New Mexico vs New Mexico State

NCAAB Odds, Pick for New Mexico vs New Mexico State article feature image
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Pictured: Jaelen House. (Photo by Sam Wasson/Getty Images)

New Mexico vs New Mexico State Odds, Pick

Friday, Dec. 15
9 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
New Mexico Odds
Point SpreadTotalMoneyline
-14.5
-110
151.5
-110o / -110u
-1400
New Mexico State Odds
Point SpreadTotalMoneyline
+14.5
-110
151.5
-110o / -110u
+800
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

In a rematch from earlier this month, New Mexico and New Mexico State meet in the Rio Grande Rivalry on Friday night.

The Lobos, who have won nine of their first 10 games, dominated the first meeting, securing a 106-62 home victory.

Meanwhile, the Aggies have battled through a challenging non-conference slate and are 5-6 on the season.

This should be a heated rivalry matchup, so here's New Mexico vs. New Mexico State odds and a pick for Friday.


New Mexico Lobos

After earning a bid to the NIT a year ago, coach Richard Pitino has his sights set on getting this program back to The Big Dance for the first time since 2014.

Pitino’s team has won eight straight coming, with the lone loss coming against a nationally-ranked Saint Mary’s program.

This great start has the Lobos ranked in the top 25 in the NET Rankings and trailing only Colorado State in the Mountain West.

What makes this start even better is the fact that preseason All-MWC selections Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. have missed a combined nine games.

Pitino has filled the void with three true freshmen, who are averaging double-figures in scoring. Kentucky and VMI join New Mexico as the only programs that can boast this stat, which makes the Lobos even more dangerous entering conference play.

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New Mexico State Aggies

In his debut season with the program, coach Jason Hooten has had a challenging start to his tenure after a successful stint at Sam Houston St.

According to Kenpom, the Aggies’ strength of schedule ranks 22nd in the country after facing three Quad 1 opponents in Kentucky, UC Irvine and New Mexico.

Femi Odukale has been a key performer for Hooten. The Seton Hall transfer leads the team in scoring (12.3 PPG) and rebounding (6.2 RPG) and averages 2.67 assists per game.

Christian Cook and Robert Carpenter are the other two Aggies averaging double-figures on the season. They will all need to play well to get a win here.


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New Mexico vs. New Mexico State

Betting Pick & Prediction

I believe we'll see an improved effort from New Mexico State, but the data doesn't back up that thought.

So, my best bet is to take the Lobos in the first half on a spread of -9 or better.

New Mexico ranks in the top 10 in average first-half margin (+11.8) and has been even better (+16.7) over the past three games.

The Lobos have covered this same spread in seven of 10 matchups this season, including the previous outing against the Aggies. In that game, New Mexico was up 23 at halftime.

Meanwhile, New Mexico State is outside the top 330 in average first-half scoring margin (-10.1). If you played this same bet for the Aggies' seven Division I opponents, it would have been a winning ticket four times.

I also struggle to see how New Mexico State's defense will get consistent stops. The Aggiess defense ranks outside the top 290 in AdjD (298th), EFG% (355th), opponents’ 2-point shooting (331st) and defending 3-pointers (348th), according to Barttorvik.

You could also look at the Lobos’ team total for the full game or first half, but I think the visitors should have a comfortable lead going into halftime.

Pick: New Mexico 1H -9 or Better

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Nick Sterling
Jul 23, 2024 UTC