Oregon State vs Utah Odds, Pick for Thursday

The Oregon State Beavers aren't one of the tougher teams in the Pac-12 and likely won't factor into the postseason conversation. On the other hand, the Utah Utes are hoping to see their name called come Selection Sunday and need to collect resume-building wins, while avoiding bad losses.

A home loss to the Beavers would qualify as the latter and signal real concern for a Utah program that has lost three of four.

Midway through the first half of a 2021 Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinal, Wayne Tinkle's time at Oregon State looked dire. In seven years leading the Beavers, he'd made just one NCAA Tournament appearance, a first round loss in 2016. His 2021 team didn't have the resume needed for an at-large berth and, at that time, trailed UCLA by 16 points.

Things changed quickly. Tinkle's team rallied back, beat UCLA, won two more games to be crowned Pac-12 champions, was awarded a 12-seed in the Big Dance, then proceeded to make a run to the Elite 8.

Since that trip to the Elite 8, Tinkle's program has derailed. In two-plus seasons, the Beavers have won just seven of their past 44 conference games. This season's team is troubling, with just one win over a power-conference foe and the situation could look even worse, if not for some saves in overtime. Oregon State needed five total extra periods in its wins over Appalachian State, Cal Poly and Troy.

The Beavers start four sophomores. In today's college basketball landscape, that doesn't really qualify as a young team. But on the court this season, the Beavers have lacked veteran leadership and are prone to mistakes. Offensively, Oregon State ranks 303rd in avoiding turnovers and defensively, it leads the Pac-12 in sending opponents to the free-throw line. There's simply not enough talent in Corvallis to overcome mistakes like that, on either end of the court.

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Meanwhile, Utah is centered around a very experienced leader. Branden Carlson is the Utes leading scorer and is playing in his fifth collegiate season after serving a two-year religious mission overseas. Nearly 25, Carlson has blossomed into a star and is the centerpiece of a Utah offense that ranks in the top 25 in efficiency.

The 7-foot Carlson is the focal point, but he's surrounded by ready shooters like Gabe Madsen and creators, like Georgia Tech transfer Deivon Smith and Utah State transfer Rollie Worster.

Worster followed head coach Craig Smith from Utah State, where he built a perennial postseason-worthy program. Now in his third year with the Utes, Smith had his team in line for the school's first NCAA Tournament action since 2016. After an 11-2 start, however, Utah has dropped three of its past four. All three losses came on the road, but Stanford and Arizona State aren't places where a tournament team should be losing.

Regardless, the season-long outlook for Utah is better than those losses would suggest.

The Utes should get right and return to form after some early stumbles in conference. I trust Smith to reset his team and get Utah ready for a lesser opponent.

Add in the elevation advantage in play for a Utah home game and I like the Utes chances to take care of business.

Pick: Utah -15.5