Baylor vs Texas Tech Pick & Prediction for Saturday

Baylor takes on Texas Tech on Saturday, March 9, at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN2. Here's a Baylor vs Texas Tech pick and prediction for Saturday.

The final Saturday of the college hoops regular season is upon us, and the best matchup of the day may wind up being this one in Lubbock, Texas. The No. 11 Baylor Bears will go on the road against a very tough Texas Tech Red Raiders club.

Baylor comes into this matchup on a roll. It is playing some of its best ball of the season, winning three of its last four games, including victories over Kansas and Texas and a narrow overtime loss to Houston. On the other side, the Red Raiders have been treading water in conference play. While Texas Tech has some solid wins under its belt, it has yet to prove it can hang with the best in the Big 12.

So, what is the best betting angle for round two of this season's series?

Baylor has been a perennial contender under Scott Drew. However, this team has a particular upside in March considering it is one of the best offensive clubs in the country.

The Bears rank fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency and are challenging for any defense. They are 12th in effective field goal percentage, and a big part of that is their elite perimeter shooting, as they have the top 3-point field goal percentage in the country. The offense is led by one of the best players in the country in Ja'Kobe Walter, who is on the Wooden Award watch list.

Their perimeter shooting is complemented by their work on the glass. They are 21st in offensive rebounding rate and will have a decided advantage in this matchup.

As for how they will fare against the Red Raiders, we should expect them to have success, but it may come on the inside as they outwork Texas Tech on the glass. The Red Raiders have been solid at defending the perimeter, but Baylor should find openings.

On the other end of the floor, the Red Raiders have been hot and cold when in possession. They will slow the tempo down, as they rank 278th in average offensive possession length, but they have been highly efficient in the half-court.

Texas Tech ranks 73rd in effective field goal percentage and is outside the top 100 in 2-point field goal percentage. However, the Red Raiders are a team that will let it fly from downtown, with nearly 41% of their field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc.

The Red Raiders' tendencies may give the Bears a break, as the one area in which Baylor has excelled defensively is the perimeter. It would not surprise me to see Texas Tech on the wrong end of some extended runs in this one, especially if it is unable to work the ball inside.

The first meeting between these two teams did reach a total of 152, but that was inflated by Baylor's disproportionate amount of free throws. The Red Raiders are 40th in defensive free throw attempts to field goal attempts ratio, so we should expect a more disciplined performance at home here.

Put that on top of Texas Tech playing into the strength of the Baylor defense, and you have yourself a recipe for a gritty season finale.

Take the Under.

Pick: Under 147.5