College Basketball Odds, Pick for Indiana vs Maryland (Sunday, March 3)

Maryland, fresh off a home loss against Northwestern, will try to shake off the disappointing defeat by beating Indiana on Sunday.

What’s the best bet for this game? Let's take a look in our Indiana vs. Maryland preview and pick.

Indiana pulled off a huge win over Wisconsin this week, improving to 15-13 and ending a four-game losing streak in Big Ten play. Senior guard Xavier Johnson returned after missing the last 13 games with an injury, but he logged only 15 minutes. Johnson probably won’t make a seismic shift, despite coach Mike Woodson day-dreaming about Indiana's upside if Johnson hadn't gotten hurt.

Indiana entered the season with glaring issues in two key departments: shooting the ball from 3 (31%) and guard play. Johnson has always been a decent guard, but not a game-changer, so Indiana putting all the ball-handling duties on his plate was poorly planned by Woodson.

Once Johnson went down, Trey Galloway and freshman Gabe Cupps started playing roles they shouldn't play. Galloway wouldn't start at point guard for winning Big Ten squads and Cupps would redshirt his freshman season for most Big Ten teams.

The Hoosiers boast a pair of dominant bigs, however, in Malik Reneau and Kel’el Ware. Reneau leads Indiana at 16 points per game and improved his passing. Ware is outstanding on both ends, using his extreme length and athleticism to block and alter shots at the rim while flashing versatility on the offensive end. Teams who don’t have size could struggle against the dominant interior tandem. Opponents will let Ware and Reneau shoot 3s to avoid getting dominated at the rim.

Northwestern came into College Park with a game plan: Let Maryland shoot the ball from 3. Unsurprisingly, trends are trends for a reason and Maryland went 2-of-22 from deep in the loss. The Terps just can’t shoot from deep at all.

Some of it could be confidence-related for freshmen like DeShawn Harris-Smith and Jamie Kaiser Jr., but starting three players who shoot below 16% from 3 isn’t ideal. Opponents would rather let Jordan Geronimo and Harris-Smith shoot wide open shots than let either use their size to attack the paint. Having very few shooters causes a myriad of offensive issues.

Maryland is elite on the defensive end — ranking fifth in defensive efficiency — and excels at forcing turnovers (19% turnover rate). Once the Terps' defensive pressure ramps up, opponents need to keep a tight handle on the ball or the Terps will turn defense into offense.

I will spin positivity in Maryland’s direction by saying Jahmir Young is one of the most complete point guards in America. The crafty lefty is ending his career on a strong note, averaging 20 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists. He can shoot it from 3 (34% from 3) but thrives on accelerating to the hoop and finishing or drawing fouls, also shooting 90% from the line. Young is the only reason Maryland has occasional offensive success.

I touched on the offensive issues from both sides. In the modern era of college hoops, teams love running and gunning, but neither team here can run or gun. The final score should finish in the 60-point range for each, where most Maryland games tend to land. That's right where Kevin Willard wants the final score, so there's no reason to expect anything different here.

Pick: Under 136.5 (Play to 134.5)

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