NCAAB Odds, Pick for Oklahoma State vs Houston

After a marquee Saturday afternoon matchup at Kansas, the Houston Cougars will attract a lot less attention with a Tuesday night home game against the struggling Oklahoma State Cowboys.

While the eye of the national media may not be as tuned in to this game, that opens up an opportunity for bettors.

With Houston fresh off a humbling loss on Saturday, the Cougars need to turn around and protect their home court to keep pace in college basketball's toughest conference.

Here's NCAAB odds and a pick for Oklahoma State vs. Houston.

The Cowboys returned limited talent from a team that scratched and clawed its way to a winning record last season. That became pretty clear in the nonconference portion of the schedule, which includes losses to Abilene Christian, St. Bonaventure, Southern Illinois and a bad Notre Dame team.

Oklahoma State didn't beat a team ranked higher than 170th by KenPom in the nonconference slate.

When the page flipped to Big 12 action, the Cowboys' flaws were even more apparent when being tested by the best conference in college hoops. Oklahoma State started Big 12 play with six straight losses.

The offense remains a slog facing the elite defenses of the Big 12 on a regular basis, while a defense that was passable against lesser opponents now looks overmatched.

The Cowboys allow the highest field goal and 2-point percentage in the conference, with many opponents able to slash to the rim to challenge two freshmen big men in the paint.

Offensively, the Pokes rely on a dribble-drive attack to set up kick-outs for a ton of 3-point attempts. However, they aren't a great shooting team. Oklahoma State is shooting just 31% from deep in conference but attempts a shot from deep at the second-highest rate in the Big 12.

Perhaps worst of all, this program — one that has been awesome on the offensive glass in recent years — sits last in the Big 12 in scooping its own misses.

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In our hot take-based culture, it can be tough to accept that two seemingly disparate ideas can be true at the same time.

For example, the Cougars are one of the best teams in college basketball because they boast the best defense in the sport. But last Saturday, that defense got absolutely steamrolled by Bill Self and the Jayhawks.

Losing as a favorite at Phog Allen Fieldhouse is a rare feat, enjoyed by few. Only two other teams have laid points to Kansas in Lawrence since Self took over 20 years ago, with Houston joining that group this weekend. Like Baylor in 2021 and Ohio State in 2011, Houston not only lost outright but did so by double digits.

Houston was favored for good reason. It entered at 19-2 with one of the best defensive seasons in recent memory. The Cougars lead the nation in defensive efficiency, blocked shot rate and field goal percentage allowed while also ranking in the top five nationally in forcing turnovers.

Prior to the Kansas game, Houston had not allowed an opponent to shoot better than 44% from the field in a game this season. Kansas was scorching hot, finishing the game with a 68.9% field goal percentage, though the Jayhawks were sinking better than 75% of their looks for a long portion of the game.

Was it just lucky shooting, or did Self build the blueprint to beat Houston? It's a little bit of both, though hard to replicate in either case.

Houston is famous for hard-hedging every ball screen, blitzing ball handlers at the point of attack. Most teams are so thrown off by this strategy, especially in a world dominated by drop coverage.

Kansas looked more prepared for these attacks than any team Houston has played so far this season, quickly looking to feed the ball to the roll-man, who would then distribute on a short roll in space.

Other teams are welcome to try this concept, though no one else has players like Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams, both composed, dynamic rollers capable of scoring or passing from that short roll spot.

The Jayhawks created plenty of open looks, then unearthed some Phog Allen magic to sink just about every attempt.

Other teams will consume that Kansas tape and try to replicate that attack against the nation's top defense, though, without elite bigs and some shooting luck, none will come close.

The real test will be when the Jayhawks and Cougars meet again in Houston in early March or again at the Big 12 Tournament.

It generally seems pretty miserable to play basketball against these Cougars. Every second its opponent has the ball, Houston is applying pointed pressure to make it uncomfortable. Houston doesn't over-rely on full-court pressure or needless double-teams. The Cougars focus instead on always being a step ahead and cutting off their foe's next move.

That has created a statistical quirk in which Houston — the best defense in the country — allows the highest percentage of assisted field goals in D-I hoops.

Teams aren't going to find an answer against Houston in isolation. They need to attack with ball movement and unselfishness to find any crack in the wall.

None of that sounds pleasant for an opponent. It likely sounds a lot worse if Houston enters the game pissed off, which will likely be the case after getting roasted at Kansas on Saturday.

The Cougars return home, ready to inflict some pain on whoever happens to show up at the Fertitta Center. The unlucky bunch faced with this task just happens to be Oklahoma State — a team you'd already expect to sled uphill against Houston.

The Pokes rank second-to-last in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency, field goal percentage and points per game while sitting last in assists per game and rebounds per game.

This is a ton of points to lay, so my eyes drifted to the total, knowing it will be very difficult for Oklahoma State to score. When its team total becomes available, that will also be on my radar.

Pick: Under 127 or Better · Oklahoma State TT Under 52.5