Villanova vs Xavier Odds, Pick for Wednesday

February college basketball elevates to the next level because every game has greater stakes. Conference tournament seeding and potential coaching carousel implications loom large, yet nothing can touch the life and death outcomes of teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The legacies and lives of two dozen programs across the country hang in the balance, with their fates decided game by game. When two of those teams meet, the stakes double.

That scenario is in play Wednesday night in Cincinnati when the Villanova Wildcats visit the Xavier Musketeers. Both currently sit comfortably outside most Bracketologists projections, but either could catapult into the Big Dance with a hot streak this month.

When Jay Wright surprisingly retired in 2022, Villanova underwent a peaceful transition of power, passing the reins to Wright's chosen successor. Kyle Neptune was a longtime Wright assistant who left to lead Fordham to its most promising season in years, so he seemed fit to lead one of the nation's top programs.

What was not clear at the time was the level to which Villanova was going to step back in the post-Wright era. Yes, Neptune has struggled on the sideline (more on that in a minute), but it's worth nothing three key seniors graduated as Wright retired and star Justin Moore was nursing a torn Achilles. That drop in talent was evident last year, even with NBA one-and-done Cam Whitmore trying to assimilate to the Villanova culture.

Neptune, to his credit, saw the lack of talent in the pipeline and dove head first into the transfer portal. Villanova brought in two of the portal's top 60 transfers and four of its top 300, based on metrics from EvanMiya. Neptune also recruited Moore into one more season as a Wildcat. This roster was built to punch among the Big East's best.

So far, it hasn't. The transfers have all underwhelmed, with Hakim Hart, TJ Bamba and Tyler Burton seeing noticeable drops in their points per game averages, a rarity from players growing and developing in their careers. You'd be hard pressed to name a Villanova player meeting or exceeding expectations. Big man Eric Dixon is fighting the good fight on the interior, yet the Villanova offense as a whole is sluggish and messy.

The Wildcats take 3s at a top-20 rate in the nation but shoot them at the 226th-best percentage in the nation. Living and dying by the long ball is fine in modern hoops, though you'll do plenty more dying when you simply can't make open shots. During a recent five-game skid, Villanova shot about its season percentage from deep but continually struggled to score in rhythm.

A good indicator for that issue is EvanMiya's Kill Shot, which refers to a team creating or allowing a 10-0 run. In the Big East, only the two worst teams (DePaul and Georgetown) allow more Kill Shots than Villanova, thanks to an offense that can dry up for long stretches.

Villanova started strong and has faded through the Big East slate. Xavier, on the other hand, is coming on hot. After a 7-8 start, which included home losses to Oakland and Delaware, the Musketeers have ripped off an impressive month of January. Xavier has won five of its last seven, with the two losses coming at possibly the two toughest places to win in this season's Big East (UConn and Creighton).

Perhaps it took time for the Musketeers to settle into place, after two major pieces were injured just prior to the season. Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter were expected to start for Sean Miller, but both will miss this year. Figuring out life without those players took time. Of the nine players who have logged more than 50 total minutes for Xavier this season, just one was with the program last year.

The current team is now built on a three-headed monster of Desmond Claude, Dayvion McKnight and Quincy Olivari attacking from the perimeter and leading the fastest-tempo team in the Big East. Those three are aided by North Texas transfer Abou Ousmane carrying his weight inside, blocking shots and cleaning the glass.

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In a game that means this much, it's about figuring out which team you can trust. In the beast that is the Big East, more often than not, you'd expect that to be the home team. This season, however, that hasn't been the case. Home teams are covering just 40% of the time, second lowest in the country.

Part of me expects that to normalize a little bit and this game could help that cause. If there's a team you can't trust in the Big East right now, it's the Wildcats. Villanova is just 2-5 ATS and SU on the road this season, not having won a road game in 2024 yet.

If Villanova is going to continue to attach its success to 3-point shooting and shoot as poorly as it has, it's going to be a long year for Neptune, and the whispers about his job will grow. Even if Villanova starts making shots, it feels unreliable and unsustainable on a game-to-game basis. For now, I'll stick to fading the Wildcats.

Pick: Xavier -2.5 (Play to -4)