NCAAB Odds, Pick for West Virginia vs Kansas State

The West Virginia Mountaineers will travel to the Little Apple to try to cause more heartache for Kansas State fans in a disappointing season.

Here's NCAAB odds and a pick for West Virginia vs Kansas State.

West Virginia dealt with tough circumstances before the season began. Legendary head coach Bob Huggins and the team parted ways shortly before the year, shifting West Virginia's trajectory in more ways than one. It pressed first-time head coach Josh Eilert into action and multiple players transferred out. Plus, injuries to prized transfer commits Kerr Kriisa and Jesse Edwards changed the dynamics.

The Mountaineers' offense runs through Kriisa and RaeQuan Battle, who account for 27 combined points per game. Kriisa initiates offense for the other scorers and shoots over 43% from 3. The only issue in Kriisa's game is predictability. He has attempted only about 20 2-point shots this year, and defenses know he doesn't want to drive. Battle is very streaky, showing 20+ point ability on any given night while also shooting 2-of-11 in other games. West Virginia's offensive success stems from which version of Battle shows up.

The one thing West Virginia does fairly well is defend. The Mountaineers rank 115th nationally in defensive efficiency but still rank second to last in the same metric during league play. Teams shoot 3s on 41% of field goals against West Virginia's defense, and defending the perimeter could dictate this game's outcome.

Kansas State made the Elite Eight a season ago and will miss the NCAA Tournament in 2024 unless the Wildcats make a run in the Big 12 tournament. Entering Tuesday, Kansas State is 16-11 overall and 6-8 in conference play, but it did just defeat No. 25 BYU. Beating the Cougars snapped the Wildcats' three-game losing streak, and we got a glimpse of their upside when the offensive clicks. That's been an issue for coach Jerome Tang's team.

The Wildcats' offense does two things very poorly: It turns the ball over and is inefficient shooting 3s. Kansas State turns the ball over 21% of the time (348th nationally) and shoots 30% from 3 (311th nationally). Winning games is hard when your offense is a complete disaster, even if you have the 16th-best defense in America.

The Wildcats' dominant defense limits opponents to a 45.9% effective field goal percentage, which ranks 12th in the country

Arthur Kaluma and Tylor Perry are the keys to Kansas State's offense unlocking a different gear. Kaluma is coming off his best game this season, scoring 28 points with 10 rebounds against BYU. Perry will get his shots off regardless, but he's shooting only 35% from the field and 31% from 3. It's strange seeing Perry post inefficient shooting numbers since he shot over 40% from 3 in two seasons at North Texas. He needs to find his form in the final stretch of his super senior season.

West Virginia shoots 37% from deep in Big 12 play, ranking second among the 14 conference teams. But Kansas State will force the Mountaineers into difficult 2-pointers or contested 3-pointers since opponents shoot only 30% from deep against them. In West Virginia's past two wins, it shot 45% from deep.

Not only will West Virginia not win, but I don't think it will cover against Kansas State without shooting 3s well.

Pick: Kansas State -9.5