Princeton vs Yale Odds, Pick for Friday

Friday nights in college basketball are, unfortunately, usually a dud. Saturdays are jam-packed with games, often leaving Friday with just a few matchups across the entire sport.

For hoops diehards, the Ivy League has long been a safe haven in this regard, building its conference schedule around Friday and Saturday back-to-back road trips, with travel partners swapping opponents. It somehow feels like what a youth sports league would do, but also makes for a fun tradition.

This Friday, we get treated to what may be the most critical game on the Ivy League calendar this season: the Princeton Tigers' trip to New Haven to battle the Yale Bulldogs.

The pendulum of power in the Ivy League has now swung twice this season. Entering the year, all eyes were on Yale, having brought back a ton of production from last season. The Bulldogs rank 20th by KenPom's continuity metric.

The nonconference schedule slowly but surely changed the balance of power, as Yale dropped four winnable games to mid-major foes, while Princeton hit the ground running at 9-0 and entered conference play 12-1.

The Tigers were expected to compete in the Ivy League, though most forecasted a step back after last season's run to the Sweet 16. Three starters, including Princeton's Mr. Everything Tosan Evbuomwan, headed for the pros or a new collegiate home (the Ivy League does not allow graduate students to play sports).

The difference has been an ascendant duo of sophomores. Xaivian Lee and Caden Pierce pitched in about 12 points per game, collectively, last season, but have exploded to over 32 combined points per game. Lee in particular has been a game-changer, scoring 17.7 points per game. He's thrived in his role as a primary scorer, raising his 3-point percentage from just 23.2% last season to 35.6% this season. He's already doubled his total scoring output from last season.

Lee has served as the center point of one of college basketball's sharpest offenses. The Tigers are top 10 in the nation in 3-point rate, 2-point percentage and turnover avoidance.

Yale entered this season reloaded from last season's roster, with plenty of motivation. Last year, the Bulldogs were the Ivy League's best team. A regular-season sweep of Princeton earned Yale the top seed in the Ivy League tournament. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, the Ivy League rotates its tournament's host and last season was Princeton's turn. A third meeting between the teams, played on the Tigers' home floor, would decide the league's champion and NCAA Tournament bid. Princeton took care of business, winning the game before dancing into the Sweet 16.

Similar to Princeton, it wasn't the returning veteran players who raised their game this season, but a sophomore growing into the team's leading scorer. For Yale, this was 7-foot center Danny Wolf. He totaled just 54 points and 44 rebounds last season but has taken a leap this year. Wolf averages 14.1 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. He's been especially dominant in Ivy League games, posting three double-doubles in four tries.

With Wolf dominating in the middle, Yale has taken back the mantle as Ivy League favorites. The Bulldogs hold a one-game lead over Princeton, plus boast the conference's top offense and defense so far.

This game is critical for the Ivy League chase. The conference has essentially settled into two tiers. Cornell joins Princeton and Yale near the top, near certainties to reach the four-team Ivy Madness.

The other five Ivy League teams are a clear step below, making the top seed in the conference tournament a major prize. Last Saturday's loss at Cornell puts Princeton a step behind. A second loss here at Yale would put that top seed even further out of reach.

In a desperation spot for the Tigers, I like their chances to steal a road game. Princeton shoots a ton of 3s and has plenty of room to get hot. The Tigers hit just 24% from deep in their last two games. Yale, meanwhile, has faced sub-30% shooting in conference play so far.

I'll bet on Princeton, with its back against the wall, to come out hot, taking the better team to either win the game or battle to a final possession.

Pick: Princeton +2.5