Providence vs St. John’s Odds, Pick for Wednesday

The Big East schedule is rife with amazing matchups, though lucky coincidences make some of them even more intriguing.

The Providence Friars heading to Madison Square Garden to battle the St. John's Red Storm was always going to be a battle, yet in recent weeks, it's taken on greater meaning.

St. John's is playing its best basketball and looking to make another statement, while Providence is on a two-game skid following the loss of its best player to a season-ending injury.

I'd be hard pressed to think of an injury that did more damage to a team's chances to make an impact this season than Providence losing Bryce Hopkins. The one-time Kentucky transfer blossomed into an all-conference performer for the Friars and his decision to stay at Providence through a coaching change this offseason was a massive win for the program.

This season, he was averaging 15.5 points per game and acting as the key cog in a Providence offense that relied on his aggressiveness on the wing. Losing him to an ACL tear completely shifted the expectations for every other player on the Friars roster.

That shift started at the top with Devin Carter. Once a tandem option next to Hopkins, Carter needed to emerge as a primary scorer to keep the Friars afloat in Big East play. In Providence's most recent outing against Creighton, Carter attempted a career-high 22 field-goal attempts, in 36 minutes of play. It was a valiant effort against Creighton, though the rest of the role players didn't quite step up in the same way.

Only five Friars scored in that game, with the rest of the roster managing just 35 points. Someone, like sophomore Jayden Pierre or big man Josh Oduro, needs to step up as a complementary offensive piece.

There's not a ton expected of this offense as the Friars defense ranks in the top five nationally. The offensive effort doesn't need to be otherworldly, just enough to win ugly.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

After a road win over Villanova, the Pitino Machine went into full gear. St. John's is now a top-40 team, per KenPom, and tied atop the crowded Big East standings.

A group of newcomers has been key to the Red Storm's success, yet this team is built on the back of big man Joel Soriano. Like Hopkins, he also chose to stay another year despite a coaching change. This was a coup by Pitino, securing a do-it-all big man to patrol the paint defensively, score on the low block and harass the offensive glass. Soriano has been one of the best players in the Big East, without question.

If St. John's is going to continue to punch near the top of the league, the addition of UMass transfer RJ Luis Jr. will go a long way. The talented wing has added some scoring pop since returning from a foot injury. The Red Storm are 3-1 with Luis in the lineup, with the lone loss coming at reigning champion UConn.

Between Luis and fellow mid-major transfers Jordan Dingle and Daniss Jenkins, St. John's now has a litany of options to attack opponents from the perimeter, a scary proposition for defenses already shifting to handle Soriano on the interior.

If this game were being played with Hopkins and without Luis, essentially the two teams we saw in the first several months of the season, it would be a better matchup.

Providence is still treading water, trying to figure out life without its leading scorer. Meanwhile, St. John's is starting to peak and looked its best in its most recent outing. Add in the location of this game, Madison Square Garden, and I simply have to back the Red Storm. Since 2012, Rick Pitino's teams are 9-2 ATS in the world's most famous arena.

The under is also worth a look in any Providence game. It's hit in 12 of the Friars' 15 games, with the total hitting 140 or higher in just five regulation games played by Providence.

Pick: St. John's -5.5 | Under 142.5

ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.