Seton Hall vs Butler Odds, Pick for Saturday

Before the season, this game between the Seton Hall Pirates and Butler Bulldogs didn't seem like one that would stand out on the schedule.

A few weeks into Big East play, however, and this matchup undeniably has implications on the Big East standings and the postseason fates of both teams.

Seton Hall and Butler were picked to finish ninth and 10th, respectively, in the preseason Big East coaches poll, with only DePaul beneath them. But already this month, each has knocked off Marquette, picked as the preseason champion of the conference.

Butler and Seton Hall each did enough in the non-conference to give themselves a fighting chance at an at-large bid to the Big Dance. Winning this tilt between teams with similar aspirations would be huge come March.

A 5-4 start to the season had most people thinking Seton Hall's preseason projections seemed about right. In reality, those four losses all came to power-conference opponents, with just one of them coming on the Pirates' home floor.

Since losing a fourth game, Seton Hall has ripped off six wins in seven tries, with the lone loss being a road defeat at Xavier.

Those wins included some massive statement performances by Seton Hall. A road win over Georgetown is expected, but still a conference road victory. A road win at Providence was certainly not expected, considering the Friars were 41-3 since 2021 at home.

Perhaps even more notably, Seton Hall welcomed national title contenders UConn and Marquette to Newark and defended their home court against both, notching a dominant win over the Huskies and a narrow victory over the Golden Eagles.

How has Shaheen Holloway steered his alma mater to this impressive start? A lot of it looks like the Saint Peter's team that he coached to a Cinderella run two years ago.

Seton Hall relies on active, athletic perimeter players to cause some chaos defensively, funneling action to rim protector Jaden Bediako. Offensively, the Pirates rely on Kadary Richmond, Al-Amir Dawes and Dylan Addae-Wusu to create opportunities off the dribble, with Bediako ready to clean the glass on a miss.

When you step back, it's clear this team is overperforming its expected outcomes a bit. The Pirates' last three wins all came by four points or fewer, and they still rank 62nd offensively and 92nd on the defensive end. Providence and UConn shot a combined 8-of-38 from 3-point range against Seton Hall, with UConn losing its star center Donovan Clingan mid-game.

Seton Hall can continue to grit and grind its way to a spot on the postseason bubble, though I expect some regression performances soon.

In some ways, Butler's first few months feel similar to Seton Hall's start. This was a team with no buzz entering the season that has yet to disappoint. The Bulldogs haven't lost to a team outside KenPom's top 50 yet, with wins over Penn State, Boise State, Texas Tech, Cal and Marquette.

Butler may sit at 2-3 in Big East play, but the schedule hasn't been kind to the Bulldogs. Those losses came at Providence (where no one seems to win), at St. John's (currently tied atop the Big East) and in a close home loss to reigning champ UConn.

Thad Matta had a re-building job on his hands when he returned to coach his alma mater, where he was head coach back in 2000-2001. He fast-tracked the re-build by digging into the transfer portal and putting together a roster that's proven to be competitive in the Big East.

Pierre Brooks never found a chance in two years at Michigan State, but he leads Butler with 16.4 points per game. Jahmyl Telfort was a 1,000-point scorer at Northeastern and has continued to convert buckets as a Bulldog. Posh Alexander is giving Butler the same energy and passing skill that made him a young star for St. John's, and DJ Davis brought his elite shooting and scoring touch from UC Irvine.

That quartet has resulted in a spread out, balanced offensive attack that Matta puts in position to score effectively in transition and in the half court.

Butler's troubles have come on the interior. The center spot has been bounced between starter Jalen Thomas and Bucknell transfer Andre Screen, with neither making a significant impact on the glass or as a rim protector.

Between the two, they average 10 fouls per 40 mins of play, leading to a yo-yoing of the lineup as Matta scrambles to combat foul trouble.

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Given the last few weeks for both of these teams, this comes out as a pretty nice spot to buy low and sell high. Butler has played better in conference than its 2-3 record. Some of that positive regression paid off in the win at Marquette, yet I'd expect it to continue at home at Hinkle.

That's especially true given the state of this Seton Hall team. The Pirates have become the talk of the conference, certainly outplaying expectations of late.

In their last three outings — each a win by four or fewer points — Seton Hall has shot 43.5% from long range, after shooting sub-30% to date before those games. The Pirates' opponents', meanwhile, hit just 30% from downtown in those three games.

I'll back Butler here, even though I'm wary of a letdown following the Marquette win. Seton Hall stands out as more likely to lay an egg, especially in a tough road environment.

Pick: Butler -5 or Better

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