Xavier vs Creighton Odds, Pick: Big East Betting Guide

After a big, triple-overtime, road win, the Creighton Bluejays face a quick turnaround prior to another critical Big East battle on Tuesday night.

Creighton will welcome the Xavier Musketeers, winners of three straight, to town.

Xavier is riding the roller coast that is the Big East schedule right now. The conference offers a grab bag of opponents, with nine of the 11 teams ranked 66th or better by KenPom.

On paper, a team like Xavier, which sits on the back half of the bubble, needs to protect its home court, steal a few on the road and avoid bad losses. The only bad losses on the calendar for a Big East team would come via DePaul or Georgetown. On Friday night, Xavier got everything it could handle from the Hoyas and won in the final seconds. The result provided a sigh of relief, but the on-court performance had to lead to some headaches for Xavier head coach Sean Miller. The Hoyas' 92 points and 121.5 points per 100 possessions both far exceeded any other performance against a power-conference opponent this season.

That performance was indicative of a Xavier defense that has been far less effective in Big East play than against non-conference foes. Lately, the Musketeers have been able to score their way out of trouble, topping 85 points and 1.15 points per possession in three straight wins. A chunk of that is shooting luck as Xavier leads the Big East in 3-point shooting percentage and hit 43% from beyond the arc in those three victories. Against stauncher competition, especially a Creighton team that oversells to run teams off the 3-point arc, the Musketeers will need to find alternative ways to score.

That should fall on rising star Desmond Claude, who has been Miller's most reliable driver into the paint, and Rice transfer Quincy Olivari, who has been great at finding contact and earning freebies at the charity stripe.

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Creighton needed three overtime periods to beat Seton Hall in Newark over the weekend. Creighton's offense looked crisp and coughed up just six turnovers in a 55-minute game. The defense, on the other hand, struggled to keep the Pirates out of the lane via dribble penetration. Three Seton Hall guards found their way to 21 points, most notably Dre Davis, who bullied his way to 9–for-10 shooting inside the arc.

The Bluejay's defense is designed to funnel teams into 2-point territory as they allow the highest percentage of points from that area in all of college basketball. Creighton's perimeter defenders close out hard to prevent 3-point looks, knowing they have an elite rim defender in Ryan Kalkbrenner lurking. That often leaves drivers deciding between a mid-range jumper or challenging Kalkbrenner to block or alter their shot. More often than not, that's a safe bet for Creighton.

This line feels about right given the state of each team, but my eyes drift toward the total. Creighton feels like a team that puts points on the board, with a cadre of scorers and a penchant for launching 3s. In reality, the Bluejays have been reliably cashing unders.

Saturday's win over Seton Hall snapped a streak of seven straight Creighton games failing to hit the total and that game went three overtimes. In regulation, the teams sat well short of the total.

You might think that leaves them due for a scoring barrage, especially against a Xavier team that's had its issues defensively. However, I tend to think Xavier's defensive performance is bound to improve, especially considering the shooting luck they just ran into against Georgetown.

Pick: Under 147.5