Notre Dame vs. Boston College Odds & Picks: Why Irish Present Value on Road
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Notre Dame vs. Boston College Odds
|Notre Dame Odds|
-115o / -105u
|Boston College Odds|
-115o / -105u
The ACC kicks its conference season off with a BANG featuring a marquee matchup between … Notre Dame and Boston College? Ah well, this is why sports betting was invented.
BC and ND have split their regular season series each of the past two years, but this season will be the first bout for new Boston College head coach Earl Grant.
Notre Dame’s offense is ranked 17th nationally, per KenPom, but it’s had its fair share of struggles. The Irish scored 1.11 points per possession against Illinois but were held under 1.00 PPP by both Texas A&M and Saint Mary’s, two physical teams that more closely resemble BC’s scrappiness.
The Irish have a bevy of capable shooters on their squad, but thus far are just 29.8% from 3 as a team against Division I competition.
Prentiss Hubb, the supposed star player, is just 4-of-29 from deep and sports an awful 61.4 offensive rating. ND needs Hubb to get back on track and its shooters to start finding the bottom of the net.
Nate Laszewski will be the key offensive piece against Boston College. He plays the 5 and will force either Quinten Post, James Karnik or TJ Bickerstaff to guard him in space. This should be advantage Laszewski — he can shoot the triple and put the ball on the deck to get past slower-footed defenders.
Grant has fundamentally changed the Eagles’ style from the Jim Christian era. BC plays at the 333rd “fastest” tempo in the land compared to the 58th fastest under Christian in 2020-21.
Grant’s new-look Eagles largely eschew the 3-point line, ranking just 333rd in 3PA rate after the program was 21st last season.
Instead of shooting, BC relies on attacking the rim and getting to the foul line to put points on the board. Per Hoop-Math, the Eagles rank 13th in the country in field goal attempt percentage near the rim and, per KenPom, BC is 34th nationally in FT rate.
As is the case with most teams who attack the basket, offensive rebounding is vital to BC’s offensive success.
Notre Dame is no world beater defensively and the Irish could certainly be better at defending the rim.
While they have height, the Irish lack frontcourt strength — thus, BC forwards like Karnik and 7-footer Post could find success on the block.
However, Notre Dame is an excellent defensive rebounding team and ranks 13th nationally in defensive rebounding rate. Second chances will not come easy for Boston College.
BC lacks shooting, which is great news for a Notre Dame squad that has allowed opponents to shoot over 44% from deep. The Eagles cannot exploit this Irish weakness as teams like Illinois or Saint Mary’s could.
Notre Dame vs. Boston College Betting Pick
This feels like a get-right game for Notre Dame despite being on the road. The Irish have dropped 14 spots in KenPom and are just 1-5 ATS, but BC’s roster isn’t going to expose Notre Dame’s relative lack of athleticism. Expect scoring to come easy for the Irish.
Boston College’s best shot at covering a short spread is to keep the possession count to a minimum. Notre Dame will likely oblige its effort there, but the Irish should be able to score efficiently enough to cover.
Lay the points with the Irish against the second-worst squad in the ACC.
Pick: Notre Dame -4
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