No. 20 Ohio State vs. Purdue Odds

Purdue (4-2) hosts No. 20 Ohio State (5-0) at Mackey Arena on Wednesday in the Big Ten opener for both schools.

The Buckeyes earned an impressive 90-85 road win at Notre Dame but enter this game shorthanded inside.

Will Ohio State be able to keep up its undefeated start against a hot-shooting Purdue team that is one of the best home-court teams in the country?

Ohio State Buckeyes

The undefeated Buckeyes have survived two consecutive close battles at Notre Dame and home to Cleveland State.

Head coach Chris Holtmann’s team defense is built on solid internal defense, allowing opponents to shoot only 38.8% from inside the arc (16th-best nationally). As a devout pack-line, help and recover defense, the Buckeyes' unsurprising Achilles' heel is defending beyond the arc. Opponents are shooting a blistering 40% from deep, the 277th-worst percentage among all Division I programs. 

In their last two games, the Irish shot 45.8% (11-of-24), while the anemic Cleveland State shooters even tallied 40% (6-of-15) from deep against the Buckeyes. This will be a problem against a fantastic shooting Purdue team that is making 3-pointers at a 37.8% clip this season. 

The biggest concern for this game is the status of leading scorer E.J. Liddell. The 6-foot-7, 240-pound forward averages 15.5 points, 7. 5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks but missed the Buckeyes' 67-61 home win over Cleveland State with an undisclosed illness. His status for the Purdue game is uncertain. 

Like most Buckeyes, senior guard C.J. Walker is a true “stat stuffer,” with 13.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 4.1 assists. He's joined by a pair of juniors in Duane Washington Jr. (14.8 ppg, 38.2% 3-point) and Justice Sueing (14 ppg, 40% 3-point) to round out the scoring. 

If Liddell cannot play, 6-foot-8 freshman Zed Key (6.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg) will again be called upon for major minutes. Key produced against Cleveland State, contributing 12 points, 10 rebounds, and three blocks in 21 minutes. 

Ohio State gets solid contributions from senior Kyle Young (5.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and sharpshooting junior Justin Ahrens (6.6 ppg, 55% 3-point). Young is the true bellwether for this team: as he goes, so do the Buckeyes. Ahrens is one of the best from long distance but has yet to attempt from inside the arc shot this season. 

The Buckeyes play at a slow pace (322nd in adjusted-tempo, per KenPom), and rarely beat themselves (eighth-best offensive turnover percentage). They are strong on the offensive boards, a typical trait for a Holtmann-coached team. 

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Purdue Boilermakers

Head coach Matt Painter bases Purdue’s identity around tough defense balanced by a structured motion offense.

This year’s Boilermakers team is centered around 6-foot-10, 265-pound big man Trevion Williams. The junior center’s production sent former Purdue big man Matt Haarms to the bench and subsequently to BYU in search of more playing time. 

Williams was off to a slow start this year but dominated Indiana State with 30 points and 11 rebounds. If Liddell cannot play for Ohio State, Williams will be a huge mismatch and advantage for Purdue. His efficiency opens up the offense for a bevy of 3-point shooters. 

Junior Sasha Stefanovic (12 ppg, 3.3 apg, 52.8% 3-point) is a lights-out shooter who is a nightmare when playing at Mackey Arena. He had four home games with at least five 3-pointers last season, including a game with seven against Central Michigan.

Freshman Brandon Newman (9.2 ppg, 40.9% 3-point) and sophomore Isaiah Thompson (7.1 ppg, 35.9% 3-point) also add 3-point shooting depth. 

The Boilermakers are hoping to have top-100 recruit Jaden Ivey (12 ppg) back on the floor after he suffered a foot injury in their opening 77-64 win over Liberty. 

Painter has been pleasantly surprised by the rapid development of 7-foot-4, 285-pound freshman Zach Edey. He has scored in double figures in all but one game and had 17 points, eight rebounds, and two blocks in Purdue’s loss to Clemson. 

The Boilermakers have been able to hold opponents to a microscopic 27.4% from deep, which is critical against an Ohio State team that will struggle to generate points potentially without Liddell. At home against Cleveland State, the Buckeyes tallied just 67 total points while shooting only 6-of-21 (28.6%) from deep.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I'm taking Purdue -4 to start off Big Ten play with an upset win over No. 20 Ohio State. The status of Liddell looms large, but even if he plays, he will need to be at 100% against Williams.

The Boilermakers have historically been strong at home under Painter. Eliminating his first season, Purdue has covered 60% of the time against conference opponents at home.

 I'm taking the Boilermakers -4 at BetMGM. Let the 3-point barrage begin.

Pick: Purdue -4 (up to -4.5).