Georgetown vs Providence Odds, Picks: Friars Have the Motivation
M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ed Cooley
Georgetown vs Providence Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Patrick Ewing is constantly dragging down Big East basketball. Meanwhile, Ed Cooley is constantly raising the league’s ceiling. The two coaches meet on Wednesday night when Georgetown travels to Rhode Island to face Providence.
These two teams have quietly covered 10 straight games between them. Georgetown has covered six straight games, a streak that’s lasted since Jan. 16 at Villanova.
It’s a near-15-point spread, but there’s a lot we can learn from two teams trending upward.
Read on for the odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s edition of Georgetown vs. Providence.
It doesn’t feel like it, but the 1-12 Hoyas have been playing better. They finally picked off a conference win over DePaul, and their BartTorvik Game Scores have steadily risen since opening night.
At the minimum, the Hoyas are showing improvement, which wasn’t available last season.
Georgetown isn’t devoid of talent. Primo Spears is a solid guard, and Qudus Wahab is an above-average big man. As a result, the Hoyas take care of the ball, hit the boards hard and are top-40 nationally in block rate.
Outside of that, the Hoyas are devoid of results. The Hoyas take bad shots and don’t make them while allowing good shots and not defending them.
There is some reprieve coming, hopefully.
The Hoyas have proven to be an effective pick-and-roll defense and are due for monstrous amounts of positive shooting regression on defense. Opponents are shooting 42% from 3 in conference play, but ShotQuality projects that numbers should be closer to 34%.
After posting his best coaching job in a Big East title last season, Cooley’s Friars are 17-6 overall and 9-3 in conference play this season.
The Friars do what they do, attacking the rim and the offensive boards hard while drawing fouls. Jared Bynum still runs the offense well, and Ed Croswell has imposed himself as one of the best offensive rebounders in the nation.
But Bryce Hopkins has transformed Providence with his scoring, rebounding, and overall playmaking. He can score in various ways, sees the floor well and has a big-time second gear.
He’s averaging 16 points and nine rebounds per game after playing six minutes per game last season at Kentucky.
Don’t you think Cal could use a guy like this right now?
Bryce Hopkins records his 3rd straight double-double and is looking like a lock for Big East player of the year 👀🔥 @BryceHopkins pic.twitter.com/tZNHTsCud4
— B/R Hoops (@brhoops) January 21, 2023
Providence has been very lucky on the defensive end during conference play, with opponents shooting 28% from 3 and 24% from the mid-range. ShotQuality projects those numbers should be closer to 34% and 38%, respectively.
I’m concerned about the ball handling and ball pressure. The Friars are ninth in the Big East in offensive turnover rate and eighth in defensive turnover rate.
Providence is good and has a clear identity. However, there are holes in the shell, most notably an overreliance on free throws and an overrated defense.
Georgetown vs. Providence Betting Pick
So, would you rather sell high on Georgetown or Providence?
I can’t say that’s a question I’m excited to answer.
From a regression standpoint, Georgetown is the play. But there’s some mismatch in those numbers, considering both teams are due for opposite regression on defense.
From a motivational standpoint, Providence is the play. Coming off an overtime loss to Big East-leading Xavier, Providence probably wants to make a statement on its home floor.
And this is a bad matchup for Georgetown. The Hoyas can defend the pick-and-roll and the post-up, but Providence’s interior defense is more motion-based with off-screen and cutting action built-in — or all the sets Georgetown can’t defend.
Meanwhile, the numbers indicate Providence can box out Georgetown’s offensive rebounders. Conversely, don’t expect Georgetown to keep Croswell and co. off the boards.
Ultimately, Providence is 8-3-1 ATS at home this year and 9-3 ATS as a favorite. It’s a big spread, but the Friars have the motivation and matchup advantages to run away with this one.
Pick: Providence -14.5
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