Iowa State vs Kansas State Odds, Picks: Wildcats Have Advantage at Home

Iowa State vs Kansas State Odds, Picks: Wildcats Have Advantage at Home article feature image

Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Keyontae Johnson (Kansas State)

Iowa State vs Kansas State Odds

Saturday, Feb. 18
2 p.m. ET
Iowa State Odds
-110o / -110u
Kansas State Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Iowa State heads on the road to Manhattan for a huge Big 12 showdown against Kansas State.

Iowa State has been a rollercoaster in the Big 12 this season, as it's currently 8-5 in conference play. The Clones notched a win over TCU in Ames on Wednesday to end a two-game skid, but they've been really bad away from Hilton Coliseum this season.

Kansas State is going through a bit of a rut at the moment, as it's lost four of its last five games, including back-and-back road outings against Texas Tech and Oklahoma.

The Wildcats were at the top of the conference at one point this season, but they have now fallen back to the middle of pack.

This is a perfect opportunity for them to right the ship at home.

Iowa State Cyclones

The Cyclones are one of the best defensive teams in the country. Per KenPom, they're seventh in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which is the best mark in the Big 12.

The Cyclones are the best team in the conference at forcing turnovers and defensive rebounding, which was key in their last game against the Wildcats. They held KSU to six offensive rebounds and forced 13 turnovers.

Iowa State is also a top-25 team in PPP allowed in both the half-court and in transition, per ShotQuality.

If there was a weakness to this Iowa State team, it's defending inside. The Cyclones are allowing teams to shoot 52.3% from 2-point range (ninth in Big 12) and are also allowing 61% on shot attempts at the rim. That is bad news against Kansas State.

The offensive end of the court has been a real struggle. Iowa State is really good in transition. It's averaging 1.49 PPP (12th in the country), but in the half-court, it's only putting up 0.95 PPP (311th in the country).

The Clones are also due for negative shooting regression from all areas of the floor, but specifically from the mid-range, where 26% of their shots are coming from.

Image via ShotQuality

Even the last time these two faced off, Iowa State finished way above where it should have at the rim and in the mid-range.

Image via ShotQuality
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Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State has been struggling, and its underlying metrics did show that it was due for some regression.

Kansas State is now 26th in adjusted efficiency differential, per KenPom, well below its ranking in the AP Poll.

KSU is shooting the ball well from beyond the arc, but the reality is most of its field goal attempts come inside the arc.

The Wildcats are the 18th-highest frequency team in terms of shot attempts at the rim, but they're shooting 59.2% on those shots, which is 199th in the country, per Hoop-Math.

Kansas State is also the highest cutting frequency team in the entire country, but is only 128th in PPP, per ShotQuality.

However, Kansas State is really good at getting the best possible shot, ranking eighth in shot selection and seventh in assist-to-made field goal percentage.

The reason Kansas State is in the top 25 has been because of its defense. The Wildcats are 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom, and are elite at defending the 3-point line.

Kansas State is only allowing 29% from beyond the arc during conference play.

Kansas State hasn't been great defending inside the arc, though, allowing 52.1% from 2-point range during conference play. It's also allowing 59% on shot attempts at the rim.

However, the Wildcats are third in the Big 12 in PPP allowed on mid-range jumpers, which is huge against Iowa State — since that's where a high percentage of its shots are coming from.

Iowa State vs Kansas State Betting Pick

This is a really good spot for Kansas State to get its season back on track and to get revenge from its narrow four-point loss in Ames earlier this season.

Iowa State's offense is so streaky and goes through so many lulls that it's really hard to trust the Cyclones, who are also due for some negative shooting regression.

If the Wildcats can attack the rim at a high level and shut down Iowa State from the mid-range and at the rim, they should be able to win this game and get to 8-6 in conference play.

Kansas State is 10-4 ATS at home this season, while Iowa State is 3-5 ATS away from Hilton Coliseum

So, I like the value on the Wildcats at -2.5, and I would play them up to -4.5.

Pick: Kansas State -2.5 (Play to -4.5)

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Nick Sterling
Jun 22, 2024 UTC