Texas A&M vs Missouri Odds & Prediction | Your SEC Betting Preview

Texas A&M vs Missouri Odds & Prediction | Your SEC Betting Preview article feature image

Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images. Pictured: Noah Carter (Missouri)

Texas A&M vs Missouri Odds

Saturday, Feb. 18
6 p.m. ET
Texas A&M Odds
-110o / -110u
Missouri Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Missouri has an opportunity to defend its home court and avenge the loss it suffered in College Station about a month ago.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M has a chance to solidify its second-place standing in the SEC behind Alabama, further distancing itself from any potential bubble discussion.

With conference tournaments now within shouting distance, here's my preview for a battle between two improved SEC opponents.

Texas A&M Aggies

The Aggies' approach to this season has seemingly been fueled by disrespect.

A&M was notably left out of the field of 68 last season. With many key contributors from that team returning to play a large role on this season, coach Buzz Williams has been able to use 2021-22 as a catalyst for motivation throughout this year.

Buzz's team has been much better in conference play than it was to begin the season. A couple eye-popping non-conference losses may actually explain why the Aggies remain unranked despite sitting in second place in the SEC.

Texas A&M's defensive effort has been drastically improved since beginning league play. If you were to simply glance at the Aggies' defensive analytics, you may begin to think they're just an average team on that side of the ball.

However, a deeper dive into their recent play shows the improvements they have made against SEC opponents.

Oddsmakers must be noticing this improvement. This total opened at 152.5, a full seven points lower than KenPom's projected total of 159.5.

Texas A&M's defense will rely heavily on its ability to bother Missouri's 3-point shooting.

Missouri's defense is one of the worst the Aggies will face in the SEC. Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford should be able to get what they want offensively, as they did in the first matchup.

However, I think Texas A&M's ability to seal a crucial win relies upon its ability to frustrate Missouri's 3-point shooters.

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Missouri Tigers

Missouri has simply been a different team at home. The offensive struggles the Tigers endured in their most recent game at Auburn simply seem to disappear in the confines of Mizzou Arena.

Those who track potential shooting regression may have made the case that Missouri was due for a poor perimeter shooting performance, which ultimately came to fruition.

Couple that disappointment with Auburn having the best 3-point shooting performance of its season, and you have the makings of the blowout loss Mizzou fans witnessed this past Tuesday.

A return back home is exactly what the Tigers need. Missouri's offense has been extremely reliant on the 3-ball this year, and the Tigers' shooting percentage has been much better with a black and gold backdrop.

In the Tigers' lineup with Kobe Brown starting at the five, all starters are capable and willing 3-point shooters.

The Tigers won't allow their struggles at Auburn — and in the first matchup against the Aggies in College Station — to deter them from continuing to chuck it from deep.

If you're a bettor that has allowed a strict perceived numerical value to lead you to bet Missouri unders this year, your pockets may be a little lighter than they began.

Simply put, Mizzou unders are scary.

The Tigers have the ability to force turnovers, especially at home with the aid of a raucous home crowd. However, their ball-handlers also have been guilty of turning it over themselves, and are likely to do so again Saturday against an improved A&M defensive unit.

While I understand the line opening much lower than the KenPom total, I would really hesitate to take a Missouri under on its home court.

Texas A&M vs Missouri Betting Pick

Missouri will not overlook the importance of this game after the performance it had against Auburn.

While the Tigers' at-large status is safe at the moment, they will want to avoid any negative momentum as the end of the season approaches.

I would expect their offensive performance to be much improved, and I'm hopeful (but not optimistic) Isiaih Mosley may return to action.

However, even heightened awareness is not likely to help Missouri's terrible defensive unit.

Considering where this total has opened, I actually really like countering the market and taking the over here.

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Nick Sterling
Jun 15, 2024 UTC