NCAAB Betting Preview for Virginia vs Syracuse
Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images. Pictured: Joseph Girard.
Virginia vs Syracuse Odds
-115o / -105u
-115o / -105u
The Virginia Cavaliers will continue to chase down Clemson at the top of the ACC Standings as they travel to New York to take on a Syracuse team having an up and down year.
Virginia has put together a six game winning streak in ACC play putting them two games back of a 10-1 Clemson team. Senior Armaan Franklin has driven the Cavaliers offense during this stretch, averaging 17.7 points per game.
On the other side, Syracuse is looking to bounce-back from two losses in a row to North Carolina and Virginia Tech.
In the first meeting between these two, Virginia torched the Orange from deep shooting 46% from the perimeter for a total of 12 made threes.
To find out if this offensive production will continue for Virginia, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Virginia vs. Syracuse.
The Virginia Cavaliers continue to roll through the ACC on the back of their methodical offense and elite defensive production. Virginia ranks inside the top-25 in adjusted efficiency on both ends of the court.
On the offensive end, the Cavaliers have been catalyzed by their ability to connect from the perimeter. Virginia has the 21st highest 3-point percentage in the county, connecting on 38.2% of their outside shots.
This outside shooting was put on full display in their first matchup with a Syracuse zone defense allowing 40.7% of their opponents points to come from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers poured in 12 3-pointers on their way to a seven point victory.
In this second matchup, I expect these outside shooting numbers to regress. Overall, Syracuse is only allowing teams to shoot 34.6% from the 3-point line, a 6.1% difference from what Virginia was able to produce in the first meeting.
Virginia’s first meeting with the Orange was a perfect bounce-back spot, as the Cavaliers had just lost on the road to Pittsburgh the night before. That same level of urgency will not be there when they travel to Syracuse.
Syracuse’s offense has been predicated on taking care of the basketball and finding high percentage shots. The Orange have a steal percentage of just 6.3%, the 13th lowest rate in the country and an effective field-goal percentage of 52.3%.
Again, this is an area I look for the Orange to progress from their first matchup with Virginia. Syracuse had 16 total turnovers in the first meeting, 4.3 above their season average.
Additionally, this is a Syracuse team which can expose Virginia in one of the few areas they have struggled defensively. The Cavaliers are giving up 35.7% of their points from beyond the arc by allowing teams to shoot 34.6% from this range.
Although Syracuse has not relied on their outside shooting to drive their offense, they have connected on 37.1% of their attempts from three-point range, the 39th highest rate in the country. If Virginia continues to give up open looks from 3, I expect Syracuse to take advantage.
Virginia vs. Syracuse Betting Pick
Although Syracuse has not gotten the results they have wanted in ACC play, they still have been able to be competitive against the league’s best. Three of Syracuse’s five conference losses have come by four points or less. This includes games against Miami and North Carolina.
In the Orange’s first matchup with Virginia, they ran into a buzzsaw as the Cavaliers were looking to bounce back at home in a game that made head coach Tony Bennett the all-time wins leader in Virginia basketball history.
This time around, I expect Syracuse to continue their trend of keeping games close against superior competition. The Orange will achieve this by capitalizing on the high percentage shots Virginia gives them from the perimeter, and taking care of the basketball.
All this being said, there is value in Syracuse as a home underdog in what likely be a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Syracuse +5 or Better
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