College Basketball Odds, Pick, Prediction: Fresno State vs. San Jose State (Tuesday, February 1)
John McCoy/Getty Images. Pictured: Omari Moore.
- Mountain West action continues late on this Tuesday night, as the San Jose State Spartans host the Fresno State Bulldogs.
- The Spartans are still looking for their first win in conference play, but it won't be easy against this stout Fresno defense.
- Check out Keg's full breakdown and top betting pick below.
Fresno State vs. San Jose State Odds
|Fresno State Odds|
-110o / -110u
|San Jose State Odds|
-110o / -110u
We’ve got another Mountain West matchup after 9 p.m. on a Tuesday night, as Fresno State will travel to take on the San Jose Spartans.
The Mountain West is one of the most competitive conferences in college basketball and some of the most enjoyable basketball I’ve watched all year. Four teams have a serious chance to earn a bid to the Tournament, and I hope they all do.
The spread may not reflect it, but I think we may be in for another Mountain West classic in this game.
Fresno enters this contest coming off of a loss to Boise State, which was its second loss in the last three games. But it could be worse. San Jose State has now lost seven games in a row after falling to New Mexico, 86-70.
San Jose State opened up Mountain West play against Fresno on Jan. 11, and the Bulldogs won by 20 points, posting a final score of 79-59. San Jose State failed to cover the spread of +14, and it has not won a game since.
Can it end the losing streak against the team that started it?
It wouldn’t be the only streak the Spartans end. SJSUhas lost nine games in a row to Fresno State dating back to 2017. Fresno leads the all-time series, 14-2, and what might be even crazier is that San Jose State has never won a game at home in this series. The Spartans are 0-4 against Fresno State on their home court.
Fresno State went to the locker room at halftime down four to Boise State. It then went on to play an impressive second half and force overtime. Unfortunately for Fresno fans, the Bulldogs fell, 68-63.
The Bulldogs haven’t been very productive on offense, averaging just 66.3 points per game. But they haven’t needed to post huge numbers because they boast one of the best defenses in the country. Even with the 264th-ranked scoring offense, the Bulldogs are 50th in college basketball in scoring margin at +7.8.
The Bulldogs do post a solid effective field goal percentage, hitting 50.6%. However, the fact that they play a bottom-10 tempo in the country and rank 338th in field goal attempts definitely contributes to their effectiveness.
Fresno has been good around the basket, an area in which it can thrive against SJSU. The Spartans allow opposing teams to hit 2-point shots at 52.1% — the Bulldogs are averaging 51.2% on the season.
Both teams are far from effective when it comes to rebounding, but the Fresno State defense has done a good job of limiting opponents. The Bulldogs defense is limiting teams to just 29.5 rebounds per contest.
When it comes to scoring, they are sixth in the nation, allowing just 58.5 points per game.
They’ve been solid overall when it comes to defending shots and creating turnovers, but San Jose State gets 41% of its points from beyond the arc. The closest thing the Fresno defense has to a weak spot is its 3-point defense, allowing teams to hit at 32.6% and take an average of 21.5 3s per game.
San Jose State truly played a good game against New Mexico, and it played an even better second half. The Spartans hit 55.6% of shots in the second half, which put them at 47.5% for the game. Unfortunately for them, the Lobos just could not miss, shooting better than 50% in both halves.
Omari Moore leads the Spartans with 13.9 points per game, which I know doesn’t sound like a lot, and that’s because it isn’t. The Spartans are scoring even fewer points than Fresno State, posting just 64.9 points per contest.
However, the Spartans don’t have a top 10 defense to back them up, as they allow opposing teams to record 73.4 points per game. They are also 299th in the country when it comes to opposing team rebounds, allowing the competition to come down with 37.6 per game.
When the offense can’t make shots and the defense can’t stop opponents, that’s how teams end up 0-7 in conference play.
Fresno State vs. San Jose State Betting Pick
Is San Jose State going to pick up its first conference win of the season? No, probably not. But 11 points does seem a little high for a team that’s dying for a win.
Along with that, Fresno State is getting 92% of the bets and 96% of the money.
Nobody believes San Jose State can backdoor a cover even though both teams are in the bottom four in the Mountain West in pace. As I noted earlier, the Spartans played well against New Mexico. I think they’re a hungry team whose backs are against the wall.
And they could catch Fresno looking past them. After all, the Mountain West has had some crazy games so far.
I’ll take a flyer on the Spartans with the points.
Pick: San Jose State +10.5 or better