Indiana vs Michigan Odds & Picks | Betting Value on Wolverines
Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Jett Howard (Michigan)
Indiana vs Michigan Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 145.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 145.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
As we approach the final stretch of the college basketball regular season, each game continues to get more significant as teams look to bolster their postseason resumes.
The significance of that can be felt in this Big Ten matchup between Indiana and Michigan, who both sit at 8-5 in conference play and in a four-way tie for second place with Rutgers and Northwestern.
Indiana comes into this matchup after winning back-to-back games against Purdue and Rutgers. The Hoosiers were led by All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis, who recorded 20-point performances in both games.
On the other side, Michigan has strung together three straight wins in Big Ten play for the first time this season. This recent success can be attributed to the Wolverines finally being at full strength.
In order to pick which team can keep their winning streak going, let's take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Indiana vs. Michigan.
Indiana Hoosiers
The Hoosiers have been rolling as of late, winning seven of their last eight games, including back-to-back wins against Purdue and Rutgers.
However impressive this recent success has been, Indiana must now go on the road and face a Michigan team starting to find its stride.
The Hoosiers have struggled when playing in true road environments, going 1-6-1 against the spread. This road regression is important to note against a Michigan team that is 10-3 overall at home.
On the offensive end, Indiana will try to continue the success it's had on the interior through Jackson-Davis. The Hoosiers score 59.1% of their points from 2-point range and connect on 63.71% of their near-proximity attempts.
In order to combat this interior success, Michigan will rely on senior Hunter Dickinson to limit Jackson-Davis on the offensive end. Dickinson has posted a block percentage of 5.5%, and the Michigan defense as a whole ranks 67th nationally in block percentage at 11.3%.
This level of rim protection will be critical against an Indiana offense allowing only 6.5% of its field goal attempts to be blocked, the 22nd-lowest rate in the country.
Last season's matchup between Dickinson and Jackson-Davis saw Dickinson come out on top with a game-high 25 points, leading the Wolverines to a 80-62 victory.
Although the Wolverines have retained just 27.6% of their minutes from a year ago, the result of this interior matchup is worth noting.
Overall, look for Michigan to utilize Dickinson to be able to limit an Indiana offense relying heavily on its interior production.
Michigan Wolverines
The current three-game winning streak Juwan Howard and the Wolverines have strung together is significant given the roller coaster season Michigan has had in Big Ten play.
Before this winning streak, Michigan was only able to win back-to-back games on one other occasion, defeating Maryland and Penn State consecutively at home.
This newfound efficiency can be attributed to Jett Howard's return to form after suffering a concussion on Jan. 22 against Minnesota. Howard is second on the team in scoring and is responsible for 22.6% of the team's total shots.
Howard's play will be critical in attacking an Indiana interior defense that is allowing just 50.4% of its points to come from 2-point range.
Additionally, the Hoosiers rank 22nd nationally in near-proximity defense, allowing their opponents to convert just 52.46% of their layups, dunks and tip-ins.
Penn State's interior D was tough to crack for Michigan.
Not surprising as the Nittany Lions rank in the top-5 in SQ points in both the halfcourt and at the rim.
The Wolverines got the job done via a ton of rim pressure from Bufkin (88th %ILE) and Howard (82nd %ILE). pic.twitter.com/YStz9FQtBz
— ShotQuality (@Shot_Quality) January 6, 2023
With the re-establishment of Howard's ability to create penetration, I expect Michigan to be able to produce on the offensive end.
Indiana vs Michigan Betting Pick
This matchup between Indiana and Michigan will be critical to breaking the four teams deadlocked at 8-5 in the Big Ten standings.
The Hoosiers come in riding high after picking up two of their biggest wins of the season against Purdue and Rutgers. These victories present a sell high opportunity for Indiana, as it enters a true road environment.
On the other side, Michigan has been at its best at home and has finally found consistency on both ends of the floor through its ability to stay healthy.
The Wolverines will also be able to combat Indiana's elite interior offense through the play of Dickinson and a defense that is allowing their Big Ten opponents to convert just 47.3% of their 2-point attempts as a result of a 14% block percentage.
Given these situational factors, the public has already bet Michigan up from an opener of -1 to -1.5. I see value on the Wolverines at anything under on possession.
Pick: Michigan -1.5 (Play to -2.5) |
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