College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions for Mississippi State vs. Arkansas (Saturday, February 5)
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: JD Notae.
- Arkansas is a 6.5-point favorite against Mississippi State in Saturday night SEC basketball action, up 1.5 points from earlier in the day.
- Keg is taking the Hogs but only to -6 -- and the line has moved past that at this point.
- Get his full Arkansas vs. Mississippi State preview and pick below.
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Odds
|Mississippi State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Arkansas will look to keep the 12th-longest active winning streak in college basketball alive on Saturday night as it hosts Mississippi State.
The Razorbacks rattled off nine in a row to begin the year before a rough stretch in which they lost 5-of-6 games. Now at seven wins in a row, can they make it eight before they host the team with the longest streak in Auburn (18)?
The Bulldogs, meanwhile, would be happy to just win two games In a row. Before the new year, Mississippi State had gone 10-3, but since it broke out the new calendar, it’s gone just 4-4. Mississippi State still sits at fifth in a crowded midsection of the SEC.
Arkansas leads the all-time series, 34-32, but this is a matchup that has been primarily decided by location. The Hogs are 22-8 in Fayetteville, while the Bulldogs are 23-7 in Starkville.
State did edge out Arkansas in 2020, though, winning, 78-77, in Fayetteville. Arkansas is 7-3 in the last 10 overall. Can it tack on another win, or will the Hogs get caught looking ahead to Auburn?
The date is Feb. 5. We are more than two-thirds of the way through the season. Mississippi State has played 21 games, and it still doesn’t have a true road win. Its four losses on the road have come against three Quad 1 teams and an in-state rival, but it’s still wild to see.
Mississippi State’s offense is a team effort, to say the least. Four different Bulldogs are scoring in double figures with a fifth at 9.9 points per game. As a team, they’re averaging 74.3 points per game.
The Bulldogs also rank inside the top three in the SEC so far this season in field goal percentage, rebounding margin, and defensive rebounding margin.
But while they have been effective, posting an eFG% of 52.7%, the Bulldogs are not without their struggles. State ranks 220th in Division I when it comes to 3-point percentage, hitting at just 32.7%. It’s also struggled with turnovers, giving up 12.7 per contest while also ranking 208th in steal percentage at 9.7%.
On defense, Mississippi State has been solid as well, limiting opposing teams to just 66.5 points per game to rank 93rd nationally. The Bulldogs rely heavily on turnovers and defensive rebounding on this end of the floor.
When it comes to shooting defense, they’ve been among the worst. Mississippi State ranks 198th in 3-point percentage on defense, as well as 223rd in 2-point percentage. Teams are posting an effective field goal percentage of 50.7% against the Bulldogs,
However, they do rank 61st in block percentage and 23rd in steal percentage — numbers they’ll need to ring true if they want to slow down a high-powered Arkansas offense.
The Hogs are led by the second-best scoring player in the SEC in JD Notae, who is averaging 19 points per contest. Notae has been a force at both ends of the floor as well, as he’s currently the only player who ranks top-15 in scoring, assist, steals, and defensive rebounds in the SEC.
But Notae isn’t the only Razorback making a big impact. Jaylin Williams was great before the winning streak began, and he’s only gotten better since. Over the last 10 games, he’s led the team in rebounds nine times and scored in double figures six. He also set a career-high with six steals against Texas A&M. Williams is averaging 14.4 points and 10.6 rebounds during the streak.
As a team, Arkansas ranks fourth in the SEC, racking up 79.3 points per contest. It’s also third in FG% and the best team in the conference from the charity stripe, hitting at 74.4%.
The defense has been even more impressive than the offense during the Razorbacks’ win streak. Arkansas held its first six opponents below 40% shooting from the field, including 29.2% against Missouri. Arkansas is the first team this season to hold six straight teams to below 40% from the floor.
On the season, the Razorbacks have held opposing teams to just 68.5 points per game.
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Betting Pick
Arkansas has dominated at home in this series historically. It’s dominated the last seven games, and the Bulldogs haven’t won a road game yet this season.
I’m sure the Bulldogs will secure that road win at some point, but it won’t be here against Arkansas. I’m backing the Hogs as high as a 6-point favorite.