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Oregon vs Arizona State Betting Odds & Picks: Can Ducks Bounce Back?

Oregon vs Arizona State Betting Odds & Picks: Can Ducks Bounce Back? article feature image
Credit:

Soobum Im/Getty Images. Pictured: Oregon’s N’Faly Dante.

Oregon vs Arizona State Odds

Saturday, Feb. 4
10 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Oregon Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
PK
-110
140.5
-110o / -110u
-110
Arizona State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
PK
-110
140.5
-110o / -110u
-110
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

As predicted, Oregon ran into a revenge-minded Arizona offense on Thursday night, resulting in a 76-91 defeat. The Ducks will now try to bounce back in a revenge spot of their own when they travel to take on Arizona State on Saturday.

In the first meeting between these two, Arizona State shot 58.8% from the floor and 44.8% from deep on its way to a 90-73 victory.

Since then, the Sun Devils have dropped four of their six Pac-12 games with their only wins coming against No. 195 Oregon State at home and on the road.

On the other side, Oregon has won four of its six Pac-12 games since losing to Arizona State, including wins over Arizona, Colorado and Utah.

To pick which team will have the upper hand in an intriguing Pac-12 rematch, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Oregon vs. Arizona State.


Oregon Ducks

Overall, Oregon has had a productive season, as it sits in a tie for fourth place with Arizona State in the Pac-12 standings.

This success has been generated through an offense that ranks 37th nationally in adjusted efficiency (113.6). A lot of this effectiveness comes from the Ducks generating high-percentage looks on the interior. Oregon ranks 32nd nationally in 2-point percentage and sees just 6.7% of its shot attempts get blocked, the 24th-lowest rate in the country.

However, the Ducks have struggled from the 3-point line. Oregon ranks 314th in 3-point percentage (30.8%) despite taking 41% of its shots from beyond the arc.

I expect this outside shooting to progress against an Arizona State zone defense that has struggled to defend the 3-point line. The Sun Devils are allowing teams to shoot 39.4% of their shots from distance, resulting in 34.3% of their opponents’ points (79th nationally).

Lastly, I expect Oregon to have a significant advantage on the boards given the presence of N’Faly Dante who leads the Pac-12 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate.

Dante will have a field day on the glass against an Arizona State team giving up offensive rebounds on 31.1% of their opponents’ field-goal attempts, 283rd nationally.

Overall, look for the Ducks to bounce back on the offensive end, particularly from beyond the arc.

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Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State sits at a respectable 16-7 overall but has struggled in Pac-12 play. The Sun Devils have lost five of their last six conference games with their only win coming against an Oregon State team that’s 3-9 in the Pac-12.

These poor results can be attributed to the Sun Devils’ inconsistency on the offensive end.

Arizona State ranks outside the top 240 in effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, 2-point percentage and free-throw percentage. This inefficiency results in the Sun Devils scoring 71.4 points per game.

These offensive struggles are important to note as they face off against an Oregon defense that prevents high-percentage looks from close range.

The Ducks allow teams to shoot just 46.2% from 2-point range, which ranks 43rd nationally. Much of this interior defense is the result of Oregon blocking 14.7% of their opponents’ field-goal attempts, the 12th-highest rate in the country.

This rim protection will be significant against an Arizona State offense already allowing 9.2% of its shots to be blocked. As a result, the Sun Devils will be forced into low-percentage shots from beyond the arc, where they’re shooting just 32.1% (270th nationally).

I don’t believe Arizona State has the offensive consistency to keep up with a revenge-minded Ducks offense.


Oregon vs Arizona State Betting Pick

This is a great spot to invest in an Oregon team trying to bounce back from its loss to Arizona.

In addition, I expect Dana Altman to make enough adjustments from the first matchup between these two to be successful on both ends of the floor.

On the defensive end, look for Dante to continue to protect the rim and find success on the glass as the Ducks see some outside shooting progression on the offensive end.

Pick: Oregon +1.5 (Play to PK)

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