Purdue vs Gonzaga Odds, Picks | NCAAB Phil Knight Legacy Betting Guide
Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Edey (Purdue)
Purdue vs. Gonzaga Odds
One of the best big man matchups in basketball takes place Friday night in the semifinals of the Phil Knight Legacy Tournament, as Zach Edey and the Purdue Boilermakers and Drew Timme and the Gonzaga Bulldogs go head-to-head.
Purdue has yet to lose and has now notched multiple top-60 KenPom wins against Marquette and West Virginia.
The Zags lost by a wide margin to Texas, but bounced back with a victory over Kentucky.
However, the play in this game is not the spread.
Gonzaga typically plays at an incredibly fast pace (19th in Adjusted Tempo). Purdue does not (312th in Adjusted Tempo).
The Boilers hold onto the ball for an average of 18.1 seconds per possession and force other teams to do the same (17.6 seconds per possession on defense).
The Boilermakers are also holding opponents to an eFG% of 41.3%, which ranks 18th in college basketball. It helps having Edey in the paint, but the guards have done well on the perimeter.
Timme and Julian Strawther can help neutralize the Purdue post game, so even though the Zags usually play a quick game, they will force some empty possessions for Purdue.
Edey is a force. He now logs over 28 minutes per game as the leading scorer on Purdue. He is averaging a double-double with 21.5 points and 13.8 rebounds per game.
Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Brandon Newman all average between nine and 11 points per game, but this offense runs through Edey.
Overall, Purdue shoots a ton of 3s, but is only hitting around 32%. Take a look at this shot distribution:
Photo by CBB Analytics
Gonzaga does not allow many 3-pointers. The Bulldogs rank 284th in 3PA/FGA, so this somewhat plays against the Purdue offensive scheme. If Purdue cannot get a few 3s to land — and also has to deal with Timme in the paint — it will have a tough time finding open looks.
One issue is Gonzaga does foul a ton. It ranks 188th in FTA/FGA, while Purdue gets to the line often. 22.2% of Purdue’s points have come from the strike this season, which ranks 67th in the NCAA.
This will need to be ramped down a bit so that Purdue’s free throw shooting does not hinder an under.
That said, if this is one of Purdue’s only consistent opportunities to score, points will be tough to come by, obviously.
Timme would be the post who could stop Edey — or at least go point-for-point with him for an entire game. Strawther and Anton Watson are also lengthy players who can guard Edey on a switch, so the Bulldogs have defensive options.
Purdue doesn’t have too daunting of an offensive scheme.
🇨🇦 Zach Edey racks-up fourth straight double-double 🍔📊
— Edilson J. Silva 🇨🇦🏀🇦🇴 (@ejsilvaBB) November 25, 2022
Edey was able to dominate the West Virginia Mountaineers due to their lack of defensive matchups.
The Gonzaga offense is a juggernaut, but it has to deal with Edey in the paint for nearly 30 minutes tonight. Nearly 57% of Gonzaga’s points this season are on 2-pointers and it ranks 299th in 3PA/FGA. The Zags will not have much of an alternative if the lane is not open.
Strawther, Rasir Bolton and Malachi Smith are the marksmen for the Zags. All are shooting over 40% this season from deep, but Purdue is holding opponents to 23% from outside. This ranks 11th in the NCAA, so the Zags will struggle to get outside chances.
Purdue vs. Gonzaga Betting Pick
Overall, this game could turn into plenty of empty trips down the floor.
Gonzaga should be able to mitigate the damage from Edey with its size. Timme is the antidote for essentially the entire offense for Purdue.
In addition, Edey and the Purdue guards will eliminate much of the Gonzaga offense if the arc and lane are clogged.
Take this game under the total of 150.5 (-110), and play it to 149 (-110).
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