College Basketball Odds & Picks for Purdue vs. Michigan State: Boilers to Roll?
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- No. 4 Purdue travels to Michigan State to take on the Spartans in a Big Ten battle.
- The Boilermakers are in the mix for the Big Ten regular-season title while the Spartans have struggled as of late.
- D.J. James breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet.
Purdue vs. Michigan State Odds
-115o / -105u
|Michigan State Odds|
-115o / -105u
Purdue heads into a tough road matchup for one of its last games on its conquest for a Big Ten title. The Boilers will have to make a stop in East Lansing to take on Michigan State to do so, though.
Michigan State has been a bit underwhelming as of late, as it has dropped five of its last six. Typically, this is when a Tom Izzo team would start to turn it on, but this squad hasn't turned the corner yet.
Purdue does not necessarily have an easy road to conquer that conference title. After MSU, the Boilermakers head to Madison to play Wisconsin, which is also in contention for the crown.
That said, with MSU playing so poorly at the moment, paired with a Purdue offense on hyper-drive, this looks like a Boilermaker cover is incoming.
Purdue has two players who are contenders for the Big Ten Player of the Year: Jaden Ivey and Zach Edey.
The depth of the Boilermakers' roster does not stop there, however. Sasha Stefanovic is lethal from 3-point range and can dish the ball. They have a range of other role players as well as a strong bench.
They will thrive from deep in this affair. MSU’s weaker defensive attribute is guarding the perimeter. It ranks 46th in the NCAA in opponent 3-point percentage at 30.7%, and is allowing opponents to hit around 31.3% of 3s in Big Ten play.
Even if that is a league-best, Purdue will be able to exploit it. Iowa and Illinois knocked down some vital 3s against MSU, and Purdue is even stronger in that category at 40.3% (third in the NCAA on the season).
After all, MSU has given up 165 points in its last two games. Purdue can attack on the inside with the lethal duo of Edey and Trevion Williams. When Edey gets tired, the Boilermakers have another big on the bench (Williams) who can play at an All-Big Ten level.
The Spartans’ interior defense has faltered a bit lately, too. Since Purdue shoots over 56% inside the arc, it will get its fair share of points.
Now, Purdue’s weakness is its porous defense. It ranks 118th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. MSU is scrappy, so it could take advantage at times.
Much like Purdue, the Spartans manufacture plenty of points beyond the 3-point line. They shoot 38% as a unit on the season, and 37.5% in Big Ten play — second to only Purdue.
Given that it's a home game, expect a few to fall for Gabe Brown, Max Christie and Joey Hauser.
That said, Illinois was able to take advantage of the Spartans' lack of depth down low.
That means Edey and Williams will take advantage of this at every turn. MSU has two true bigs in Marcus Bingham Jr. and Julius Marble, but otherwise, Hauser guarding the Purdue frontcourt may not turn out well.
Because of the depth issues inside, the Spartans are only shooting 49.3% from 2-point range this season (197th in the NCAA). This is the true handicap in the game.
Even if Michigan State can match Purdue from distance, it will get peppered with clean interior scoring consistently.
Purdue vs. Michigan State Betting Pick
Purdue is simply too big for the Spartans, so do not expect MSU to bounce back from its funk just yet.
Edey and Williams should score a plethora of points, and anything else is just a plus. Not to mention, Ivey will likely burn past the Spartans' guards, so this margin could widen as the game wears on.
Ride with the Boilermakers