College Basketball Odds, Pick, Prediction: Rhode Island vs. Dayton (Friday, January 28)
Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: DaRon Holmes.
- The Dayton Flyers host the Rhode Island Rams in A-10 action on Friday night.
- The Flyers hold multiple advantages in this matchup and enter as worthy favorites.
- DJ James breaks down the game and shares his top betting pick below.
Rhode Island vs. Dayton Odds
|Rhode Island Odds|
-115o / -105u
-115o / -105u
The Dayton Flyers will host the Rhode Island Rams in an A-10 clash on Friday night.
The Rams are coming off of consecutive losses for the first time this season against both George Washington and Richmond. Dayton knocked off Fordham and takes its 5-2 conference record into this matchup.
Home-court advantage on KenPom provides Dayton with a 3.8-point bump, but given its rebounding capabilities and similar pace to URI, it should cover the spread in this game.
Rhode Island thrives on the defensive end. It only allows 2-pointers at a 43% clip and 3s at 30.9%. This leads to an average of 18 seconds per possession for opponents, making it very difficult to find shots.
In addition, the Rams turn other teams over 20.4% of the time and Dayton turns it over on offense at a 21.5% rate, so this can be exploited. However, URI has its own issues turning it over on offense, so this should be pretty close to a wash.
The Rams struggle greatly at the free-throw line. They rank 16th in manufactured free-throw attempts, but shooting only 67.1% could negate this edge against most teams. Defensively, Dayton does not foul often. It ranks 26th in fouls against, so this limits the Rams in some capacity.
On the opposite end of the floor, URI fouls at an alarming rate, so if anything, Dayton will have the edge at the free-throw line.
With free throws being such a critical factor for the Rhode Island offense, it’s hard to determine where its points will come from. The Rams have gained 57.1% of their points this season off of 2-point shots, so that’s their alternative.
However, Dayton has a strong interior defense, allowing the opposition to hit only 45.8% of 2-point shots.
Without 2s, URI will have to find a way to get outside shots to fall. Jeremy Sheppard and Ishmael El-Amin’s 3-point impact will loom large if URI can remain within an arm’s reach of the Flyers.
Dayton will have the rebounding edge. It secures that advantage by rebounding from every position, even on the wings. URI ranks 198th in offensive rebounding and Dayton ranks 21st in defensive rebounding, so this eliminates second-chance opportunities for the Rams.
Next, Dayton will figure out a way to get to the free-throw line. Rhode Island ranks 294th in free-throw attempts on the defensive end, so Dayton can capitalize on this. DaRon Holmes, Toumani Camara, and Malachi Smith are the usual suspects at the line, so they will play a massive role in this game.
If they’re making it to the charity stripe, they’ll be getting URI’s Makhi Mitchell in foul trouble and further skewing the rebounding edge for Dayton.
Lastly, Elijah Weaver is questionable for this game, but Dayton won without him against Fordham. He does carry the ability to score but has not played many minutes over his last four games anyways.
Even if he’s out, Dayton should still have all of the above advantages over Rhode Island.
Rhode Island vs. Dayton Betting Pick
Rhode Island will have some trouble in this road affair.
Dayton will have the rebounding advantage and could potentially earn some more trips to the foul line. On the contrary, URI is weak when it cannot score inside or get to the line.
Given their discipline without fouling and their interior defense, the Flyers should have the edge in this game and cover.
Dayton Arena will be rocking. Take Dayton at -6 and play to -7.5.
Pick: Dayton -6 (Play to -7.5)
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